Quote:
Originally Posted by retiredguy123
Every morning, I check the Weather Channel app to see if it is going to rain. Today, it said that there was a 71 percent chance for rain at 5 pm. But, now, at 3 pm, the chance for rain at 5 pm is only 40 percent. I understand that a forecast can change, but this pattern occurs almost every day. The chance for rain at 5 pm is very high in the early morning, but then it decreases as the time gets closer to 5 pm. It almost never increases. It happens so often that I believe that the forecasters are intentionally publishing a higher chance for rain in the morning than the data actually suggests. Has anyone else noticed this trend and is there a logical explanation?
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oh the newbies.... LOL the reason the forecast changes so often and drastically is quite simple. On one side you have the gulf, basically the 'heat sink' only 2.5 hrs to the east is the atlantic 'cool breeze' depending on how systems & airflow moves across the state determines when and where the rain/storms will occur. sometimes gulf breeze is stronger therefore closer to cocoa beach... sometimes atlantic is straonger therefore Tampa area... often they meet mid-state. where mid-state is unpredictable. about 6-9 years ago I could tell you that somewhere around 3-3:15 pm Orlando would get nailed. it was a recipe. considering what's been happening on both waters it's really not the weather people or anything, most time what is at 8am won't be by 3pm.
Short version - Welcome to Florida.