How our memories dim with age. When I was young, the weather forecast would say "chance of showers tomorrow." Not 40% at 3 PM or 60 % at 5 PM. So we would take raincoats or umbrellas with us. Today, we get upset when the forecast of 70% chance of rain at 4 PM doesn't result in rain at 4 PM. I am just glad I don't have to predict the results in an incredibly dynamic system as our weather. Sort of reminds me of when the marketing folks would come and ask me to predict when my team would come up with an invention to solve the problem we were working on.
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“There is no such thing as a normal period of history. Normality is a fiction of economic textbooks.”
— Joan Robinson, “Contributions to Modern Economics” (1978)
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