Quote:
Originally Posted by Laker14
As I reflected upon the near-collision later, I decided that even careful drivers (I've been driving cars for 54 years, no accidents, and not one moving violation in that time) can be involved in an accident, either by making a mistake (we all make mistakes) or someone else making a mistake.
Once there is an accident, it can easily become a "he said, she said" scenario. I worked a long time to accumulate enough assets to live a nice retirement. For a hundred, or two-hundred dollars a year, I'll take the "sucker's bet", and create one more layer of protection between an accident and my assets.
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I agree with this line of action:
A cpa/data scientist colleague worked at a local insurance company, and there are two main factors at the extremes for vehicle accident probabilities in the auto insurance casino to price the pool risk:
age, in the shape of a parabola
miles driven each year.
which is why many insurance companies want to know:
where the horses sleep each night
where you work
how many miles you drive each year. .
also remember, you are dealing with cognitively declining hoomans, who are notoriously bad at figuring mental probabilities, such as getting into the next accident after 999 times doing the same thing accident free.
Same as the stock market, same as today's score at golf,
past performance does not guarantee today's events. . . even in a golf cart.
all you want, your individual past performance is irrelevant for risk pricing, but your risk pool's past performance does. . .