Quote:
Originally Posted by margaretmattson
Good catch. Falling demand could possibly cause a crash. Especially, if the falling demand is in the same area of the Villages. A reduction in prices of homes is not the only indicator of a crash.
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If The Developer wants to sit on the existing surplus of housing units and stick to their pricing points without reductions, then no, a crash wouldn’t occur. However, opportunity costs will stack up. The opportunity costs become real numbers with real consequences to the business that effect liquidity balances.
If The Developer eases prices downward (which they have on some units) the landing won’t be as dramatic. The amortization of value will result in some economic impact depending on volume of sales and expenses.
Now as the situation develops there is the aspect of potential customers. Is the economic streaming of potential buyers increasing (applying pressure on demand)? Currently most would say no because of interest rates, reduced buying power (inflation), a shrinking upper class, and investment groups withdrawing from the market.
It is interesting to watch the drama where we live right now. There is an overall slowing of the economy felt both nationally and in this locus at the micro level. Federal Reserve movements of interest rates can do a lot. Inflation is abating (currently ~ 3.5%) but it has to slow further.
If you were a potential buyer right now, and cared about your money (home as an investment), it would be a poor choice to purchase a home in these conditions which appear to be worsening. If you are a potential buyer who doesn’t care about the funds(example a vacation budget) then buy away. Most are not in the second category.
By the way, your point is key to the entire discussion. The Developer for the most part only controls the “new” house market. That is where the 14.9 % decrease is demonstrated. Actual drops should be more dramatic in this following quarter. July and August were more prominent months that kept September buoyant with the mean (average).