Quote:
Originally Posted by tophcfa
Inflation decline???? Just got our homeowners renewal, property tax bill, auto insurance renewal, 2024 health insurance renewal notice, went to the grocery store, and filled up the oil tank. Inflation appears to be accelerating, not declining. Food prices alone appear to be on a non stop upward spiral. I can see how the powers that be need to massage the data to create the false impression that inflation is declining. The cost of paying the interest alone on the out of control national debt has risen to over a trillion dollars per year.
|
take a breath! I think you just hyperventilated with your current analysis of annual taxes, which I am gratefully thankful, as well as you are only seeing the FL geography and state/local effects. (remember, FL is a third world country in most all governmental aspects). Lets parse the words carefully:
The
fed is done hiking rates due to the national government inflation calculations.
The rent equivalent portion of housing prices was one of the last rising components, and as evidenced from the house pricing discussions, that component should stop rising fairly soon.
The federal
deficit funding is another issue, and that additional funding will cause the longer term interest rates to potentially rise, and putting the yield curve back into its normal upward sloping curve, with the current fed funds rate anchoring the curve. I fully expect longer term interest rates to rise, and soon due to the next 700B funding tranch coming next week? i think.
now, i am long oil and expected the middle east conflict to do something to crude / diesel supply, but without any super cold air in the northern hemisphere or any other supply interruptions, etc, the most obvious inflation generator isn't happening. Trucking companies are having a slowdown, which will keep diesel from having a supply crunch.
So currently, just sitting here waiting to see how fiscal funding affects interest rates, and expecting a slow deterioration of business conditions, with the increasing inability to pass on costs to the consumer, and hoping that oil will reverse a bit as the first cold air hits somewhere. Actually SG&A staff needs salary cuts, particularly sr mgmt, but that's my opinion. .
and remember that the future is always uncertain,
and sometimes more uncertain than at other times,
and that it can change in a flash for individuals and economies.