Quote:
Originally Posted by Villager2be
Hi All,
Hoping to get some feedback from those who have been around TV since the 2008/09 Great Recession, I have been getting "pro" feedback that the 08-09 housing crash nationally, and in Florida specifically, essentially had zero impact on the Villages market, that TV was a rare exception and was essentially unscathed, can that possibly be true?
The same source also indicates that I am practically assured that any new home that I buy now will be worth ~$100k more in a year once the neighborhood/area is completed and more mature. As great as that would be, I am not drinking that kool-aid (yet, lol!), especially as it seems the market has been softening a bit over the last year (can it be?).
Given your experience, and how far the market has come, would you even be concerned about downside risk? I am buying as a snowbird owner/resident but also hope to recoup expenses by hosting for the remainder of the year via short term rentals through a property management company. I'd rather not buy at a market peak, I would just rent for now if I thought that was the case.
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Comparing the present to the 2007-2009 global financial crisis (GFC) for home prices is not a very good benchmark. At the present, the US economy is doing fairly well. Home prices have declined or been soft because of rising/higher mortgage rates mainly. In the GFC, interest rates were falling and a lot of other things were happening. (If you are really interested in the GFC, you might read:
The Global Financial Crisis | Explainer | Education | RBA)
For the present, I believe home prices will be strongly affected by interest rates for home loans. No one knows what interest rates will be in the future. But the days of cheap money (the Fed’s near zero interest rate policy) are likely gone, which means, if I am right, home price appreciation overall will be lower compared to the recent past. For home prices in The Villages, I don’t know. They could be stronger compared to national averages because the local dynamics differ. Regardless, I personally do not believe that home prices in The Villages will collapse but the days of annual 10%+ home price appreciation overall are likely over for now. YMMV.