I’ve lived in Florida on the coast for a long, long time. I can tell you most of these forecasts are donkey dust. They always predict a huge amount of hurricanes and in the middle of the season or after the first quarter they reduce them. Then at the end of the season they say how accurate they were. It drives me crazy. They should stick with the original prediction and then admit how wrong they were. With that being said I’ve lived through a few hurricanes and when the news tells you to leave, you’ll leave that part they get right.
I also want to say once the hurricanes are here the weather teams are really good with keeping track of it. The above comment was only about the people who predict the hurricanes.