Quote:
Originally Posted by Princeton
I’ve lived in Florida on the coast for a long, long time. I can tell you most of these forecasts are donkey dust. They always predict a huge amount of hurricanes and in the middle of the season or after the first quarter they reduce them. Then at the end of the season they say how accurate they were. It drives me crazy. They should stick with the original prediction and then admit how wrong they were. With that being said I’ve lived through a few hurricanes and when the news tells you to leave, you’ll leave that part they get right.
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CSU (Colorado State University) was and still is the leader in producing hurricane outlooks (which is a talk being given next month), but the actual verification data is never reported by anyone. Guess why. Looking at the just the forecast for "named storms" (which is the most quoted number), from 2000 to 2023, CSU only got it right 3 times. In the past they were off as many as 14 storms in one year. This year, they are forecasting 23 named storms. Bottom line ... it's a guessing game ... much like forecasting the stock market.