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Originally Posted by sounding
Exactly right - it is the hottest in recent history - but not for the full historic record. It's now hot for 3 reasons (and none are CO2 related). 1. The AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) is still in its warm phase. 2. Sunspot cycle #25 is peaking. 3. Last and most important is the unprecedented amount of water vapor (earth's primary greenhouse gas) that the Tonga volcano ejected into the stratosphere - 10 miles up and higher - which is causing an unprecedented global warming spike as seen in attached satellite temperature graph. Updates on Tonga and Hurricanes will be presented during all Weather Club meetings this summer season. PS ... contrary to what the media claims, the Atlantic and Pacific tropical cyclone season was late getting started ... find out why at the Weather Club.
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As usual, it is not so easy to parse the data and conclude that Tonga is causing an increase in temperature. Usually volcanoes cause a decrease in temperature due to the reflective nature of particles ejected into the atmosphere.
But Tonga also ejected a huge volume of water into the upper atmosphere and the water vapor would increase earth temperature.
The article below points out, that the reflective nature of the Tonga particles was overlooked in the first Tonga analysis. The water vapor in the upper atmosphere would heat the earth. The reflective Tonga paricles (like dust) cool the earth. The net effect from the Tonga volcano is slight cooling.
Plain Language Summary as provided in the article below:
The Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai submarine volcanic eruption on 15 January 2022 produced aerosol and water vapor plumes in the stratosphere. These plumes have persisted mostly in the Southern Hemisphere throughout 2022. Enhanced tropospheric warming due to the added stratospheric water vapor is offset by the larger stratospheric aerosol attenuation of solar radiation. The change in the radiative flux could result in a very slight cooling in Southern Hemisphere surface temperatures
Read the article here at this link:
Just a moment...