Quote:
Originally Posted by daniel200
As usual, it is not so easy to parse the data and conclude that Tonga is causing an increase in temperature. Usually volcanoes cause a decrease in temperature due to the reflective nature of particles ejected into the atmosphere.
But Tonga also ejected a huge volume of water into the upper atmosphere and the water vapor would increase earth temperature.
The article below points out, that the reflective nature of the Tonga particles was overlooked in the first Tonga analysis. The water vapor in the upper atmosphere would heat the earth. The reflective Tonga paricles (like dust) cool the earth. The net effect from the Tonga volcano is slight cooling.
Plain Language Summary as provided in the article below:
The Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai submarine volcanic eruption on 15 January 2022 produced aerosol and water vapor plumes in the stratosphere. These plumes have persisted mostly in the Southern Hemisphere throughout 2022. Enhanced tropospheric warming due to the added stratospheric water vapor is offset by the larger stratospheric aerosol attenuation of solar radiation. The change in the radiative flux could result in a very slight cooling in Southern Hemisphere surface temperatures
Read the article here at this link:
Just a moment... |
That article does a good job of minimizing water vapor and highlighting aerosols. But it fails to mention that the water vapor was much more extensive in space and time, while it neglected to note that the aerosols are falling out faster. Even though published earlier, this better paper fairly examines both factors in greater detail -- clearly concluding the net effect is significant warming ...
Global perturbation of stratospheric water and aerosol burden by Hunga eruption | Communications Earth & Environment . Furthermore, you really don't need these "sciency" papers to tell you want is happening. "Common Sense" tells you Tonga is the primary reason why the Tropospheric temperature spike (see below graph) is so dramatic as compared to past spikes.