Talk of The Villages Florida - View Single Post - Active portfolio 30 year returns using machine leaning
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Old 08-16-2024, 10:39 AM
rsmurano rsmurano is offline
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a couple of things:
you talk that etfs are the golden goose, they aren't as a whole. You still have to know what you are doing. Some etfs are great, some are dogs. IMO, the biggest advantages of etfs are you can trade them like stocks, and they should be a little cheaper.
All that history you talk about is built into most stock screeners today, going back to at least 10 years, not sure why you would want to go back more than that.
Your AI etfs of the future are still actively managed which costs you more taxes, higher expenses, and you are at the mercy of a machine which is right now the guy who programmed that machine. You still have initial programmers who program AI code so the machines will act smarter over time, which you have some of that today. For example, when the market hits a certain drop level of the day, you have machines set to sell (or possibly buy) and that's why you have a run on the market. You can (and you should) setup trailing loss for your accounts so you take the emotion out of selling and you won't end up with a stock/etf down 40%.

I don't like anything about a "managed fund", I don't care if it's the so-called best manager or some machine making the decisions. I always use index funds which will beat any managed fund over the long run. Managed funds have a hurdle from start: you have to pay many people to look into which companies to buy initially, then you have these same guys looking when to sell, which all of this costs a lot of money. Then most of these managed funds have a high turnover (I've seen over 400%) which costs you money in transaction costs plus short term gains expenses on your taxes. On the other hand, Index funds have very low low cost (some of mine are .02%), very low turnover rate, and its over a broad base of companies.
The comment: "Old style portfolio management of buying and selling individual companies has fallen to the wayside". I beg to differ. I made a fortune during the past year or so getting into stocks like Tesla, Apple, Nvidia, chipotle, and others that went up hundreds of a %. I have done this with apple probably a dozen of times in the past decade. I wait until a stock goes out of favor for some reason (you know these stocks will not go under) and you pounce, then when you feel that the company is at its peak in value, you sell. So what if it continues going up, in my mind, pigs get slaughtered. I bought apple in the $120's then sold it a while back in the $180's. It went sideways for a while then started going back up. I'll just wait until another bump in the road or another stock split and jump back in. I have Meta around $95-$100 18 months ago, now take a look. I got out when I ws up in the low 300's of a %. Now its up over 400%.

I'm going to give AI related programs/machines a few years to get perfected before I will trust them with my money. I wouldn't even use chatgpt right now. Apple's "Apple Intelligence" looks good but even then I won't trust it right now either.