[jimjamuser]

Originally Posted by CoachKandSportsguy

former finance guy to the rescue.

1) The current rates of inflation have trended down and is close or the core is at or below the fed's target rate of 2%. Primary goal accomplished!

2) the labor market is much weaker than the headline numbers show. Why is that statement appear to be true? Because the annual true up adjustment was down about 700,000 jobs or so, which is about 70K per month overstated Likewise the month following the monthly inithialreading, true up adjustments are all negative / down as well. So for what every reporting source is being used for the initial monthly reading, is toohigh, and so the market is weaker in reality, than the BLS is portraying

3) The Sahm rule is right at the labor recession threshold, meaning that any further weakness in the labor market is signal a recession is imminent.

4) Powell is a being a bit more political than he would ever admit, but if there was ever a time to avoid any labor recessions or numbers or indicators showing that a recession is imminent, now is the time to reduce rates to avoid any negative economic press prior to the election.

Does that work for you?

Some will call me naive, but I feel that the FED has been allowed to stay independent and above politics in recent years.