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Originally Posted by FxTrader

You are correct on all 4 points. However, only the RATE of inflation (how fast prices are going up) have slowed down. Actual prices? Maybe they dropped a little, but everything is still over 2x 2021 prices. What's scary is Crude is back to 2021 prices, but gas is not. What's going to happen on the next wave.... And you can bet we get it. With rate cuts and the government spending money like a drunken sailor, it's sure to happen.

We should also point out (not always, but many times) rate cuts are overall bearish for the stock market. See 2007. The market topped a few weeks later after they started cuts on exactly the same day back then.

The political landscape looks like 1968, so does the stock market. It topped in November back then. Maybe we get another trip up into Q4 2025, but too soon to tell. I need to see where this leg tops. S&P500 between 5900 & 6200, we might be done for awhile. Lower before a drop & my scenario into 2025 plays out.

As for why the indices are up so high -- Well if prices have 2x & 3x for everything, it makes sense an index of 30 or 500 stocks also would cost more to own.

Addressing point #2 you made -- Yeah, and that's part of what leads to a recession.

The BLS has revised everything. How they report CPI, weighting of individual components, and of course as you know, somehow managed to sneak in a revision of 813,000 jobs lost which no one will pay attention to until the election is over.

I agree with everything , but wouldn’t correlate the gas with oil proportional to prior to 2021 prices. Refining expenditures for labor have increased due in large part to inflation and new regulations.