Regarding Helene, that was then and this is now. A specific number at a specific time is deterministic. Computer models, from which forecasts are generated, produce deterministic solutions. There is a fair amount of post processing of the deterministic solutions, as well as ensemble runs, from which probability distributions are generated but the actual values of the state variables in the models at specific times are available. My suggestion was to look at the probability distributions from the hurricane folks this far out. Specifically, we currently have a 30-40% probability of seeing sustained winds greater than 39 mph, a 10-20% probability of seeing sustained winds greater than 58 mph, and a 5-10% probability of seeing sustained winds greater than 74 mph during the duration of the event.
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Originally Posted by Windguy
Weather Underground predicted similar numbers for Helene and they were pretty close. And, no, those numbers are not deterministic. Weather forecasts are inherently probabilistic.
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