There is still uncertainty in the track. The average NHC forecast track error at 36 hours is about 60 miles. Their 4 PM update moved the track a bit south of Tampa based on a bit of a wobble that may not have been incorporated into the exact location of the circulation in the 18Z model initial conditions. Regardless, the 00Z model runs this evening will be the one I pay particular attention to. The GFS results are available around midnight with other model results available before and after midnight.
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Originally Posted by Velvet
Yes that’s what I noticed too, and also NOAA is indicating a slightly southern path than before.
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