Quote:
Originally Posted by biker1
The terminology is chaos theory. The models use non-linear PDEs (the Navier-Stokes equations on a rotating sphere plus considerations for radiative transfer, turbulence, and liquid phase change). It is an initial value problem and slight differences in the initial state will result in differences in the simulation. Since you can’t know the initial state perfectly, there is a limit to predictability. Ensembles take advantage of this by making multiple runs with slightly altered initial states to define the envelope of possibilities. That is the short version.
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Just for some masochistic fun, I scrolled through the Wikipedia page on Navier-Stokes. That there are humans walking among us that "get" that stuff boggles my mind. How do you find anybody to talk to?? :-)