The OP didn't say what the rest of his investment portfolio looks like. Most people employ an asset allocation strategy. To decide how best to deploy $200K sitting in a MM account, it is helpful to know how where any other moneys are invested. Is $200K the entire portfolio? Don't know. I am in no way suggesting the OP to reveal details of his finances on a forum. I am just saying the whole picture should go into his thinking....and I am sure it does. You do want some equity exposure at age 68 (or at any age in my book).
Yes, ETFs are advantageous over mutual funds with the same basket of securities in that you can control the timing of your capital gains. This matters most if one is in a high tax bracket. It also an advantage when you die as your heirs get a stepped-up basis on the inherited assets.
Dollar-cost averaging does a nice job of reducing volatility.
A broad-based index fund or ETF(s) will almost certainly be up in 20 years and very likely be up in 10 years. No one can tell you if it will be up or down in 1 or 2 or 3 years. I know, everybody knows that.
Your investment time horizon does not necessarily have to end with your death. I have stocks including ETFs that I inherited from my mother and she has been gone a long time. I am sure I will pass securities to my heirs as well.
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