Talk of The Villages Florida - View Single Post - Anyone else preparing for a big selloff?
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Old 01-08-2025, 09:03 AM
CoachKandSportsguy CoachKandSportsguy is offline
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been in all cash since december,
valuations are very high in the MAG 7, which is driving the market both up and down
passive investments drive valuations higher and increase risk to the market, proven research

interest rates are rising,

economic uncertainty is very high at the moment
inflation has been very sticky, and will only get worse with tariffs
how much worse is currently unknown, but not a non event.

there have been 5 years of back to back 20% gains in the SP500
the following two years returns for all of them have been mediocre

AI will displace tech workers primarily, and some other workers,
putting upward pressure on social spending support, putting downward price
pressure on housing.

What's good for companies is not good for employees. .
Employees buy the stuff which companies produce. .
its a feedback loop which has limits.

And ignoring the rising instability in the world? at some point, something might get out of control, we're talking hoomans here, the irrational kind

Just saying the machine learning investment algorythms I follow are mostly in cash

Bonds are a hedge for market corrections
Stocks are not a hedge for interest rates increases.

good luck

former finance guy