Quote:
Originally Posted by rustyp
December jobs reports has Wall Street starting to talk about rate hikes in 2025
|
The 10 year treasury interest rate also hit a high from a a long period of time, and inflation is showing signs of stickiness, making the fed's focus on the labor market, which has been leveling off, more risky for the bond vigilantes. So the spread widening between that and the 3mo/1yr rate is the term premium rising. Search on term premium rising
Yellen has been funding the government deficit with short term notes, and the new admin is expected to move the funding out to longer duration, increasing longer term interest rates and bond holders are getting out ahead of the expected issuances. . so treasury bond holders are losing and markets are losing. . .
in bull markets you buy on the rumor, and sell on the news
in bear markets you sell on the rumor, and buy on the news
Watch TLT and IEF . .
if the past market cycles work, the current sell off bottom is around 5575 +/- 10/20 points on the SP500. . . depending of course on the tariff scenario. . only 4% from here. . 5% or so from the last high, pretty standard bull market correction . . . assuming a bull market. .
good luck out there
we all need it. .