One of the key indicators of the current mania, is Microsoft's CEO pulling back on future CAPEX developing AGI, (Artificial General Intelligence) and cancelling some future data center contracts.
So just a warning about the frothiness of the current market at ATHs.
Just a seasonality warning:
https://x.com/WayneWhaley1136/status...18664772182070
A NEGATIVE FIRST THREE WEEKS OF FEBRUARY
The "First 3 Weeks of February" were down 0.45%. Since 1950, if the First 3 Weeks of February were negative, the following year (Feb21-Feb21) was a very normal 21-12 for an avg gain of 6.21%. But there is an interesting story behind those statistics.
In search of Bear Market Warning signals, I once requested of my computer that he scan every time span in search of those that had a statistically significant track record of forecasting a double digit down following year. It provided me with a handful worth following, one of which was the occurrence of a "Negative First 3 Weeks of February".
It turns out that all eight of the S&P, post 1950, double digit down, Feb21-Feb21 years were preceded by a Negative First 3 Weeks of February. Note, that a "Negative 1st 3 Weeks of Feb", preceded most of the three 50% Bear Markets of my lifetime, 1973-74, 2000-02 & 2008.
Billy Bull points out that in 12 of those 33, 'Negative First 3 Weeks of Feb' cases, the following year was double digit positive. So, if you are of a bullish persuasion, feel free to blow this study off as simply an aberrational product of an overly, ambitious, data mining exercise.
But if you are of the opinion that conditions are in place to give the S&P some problems in the next 12 months, the fact that all eight of the prior, post 1950, double digit down, Feb21-Feb21, years were each preceded by a "Negative First 3 Weeks of February", might give you additional reason to pause.
One of a dozen Toy (Turn Of the Year) Stories shared with my commentary subscribers this year,
waynewhaley.witterlester@gmail.com