[Stu from NYC]

Originally Posted by Normal

End of next week below 60K
June below 20K

Now that the latest Q test, 83-qubit, 32-layer random circuit sampling task, was completed 1 million times faster than the result set by Google's previous generation Sycamore chip, published in October 2024. It’s only a matter of time. Willow is already set to be in the dust in 5 years time.

I recall someone laughing ten years ago about a computer chip holding a terabyte of information. Those chips are now just part of a Smithsonian display. Recall super computer speeds before the arrival of the quantum computing age?
Here is the performance of the fastest supercomputer in the world, the past 15 years:

Top in 2010: 2.57 petaflops
Top in 2005: 280.6 teraflops
Top in 2000: 4.94 teraflops
Top in 1995: 170 gigaflops
If we set the fastest supercomputer in 1995 as the baseline:

The top supercomputer in 2000 was 19 times faster.
The top supercomputer in 2005 was 1,650 times faster.
The top supercomputer in 2010 was 15,100 times faster.

Just last week the Chinese released results of a 105 QPU processor that is 1 quadrillion (10¹⁵) times faster than the best supercomputers on the planet. It tested at

In retrospect the Frontier (second-fastest supercomputer in the world), would need 5.9 billion years to complete identical tasks that take the quantum chip less than 1 nanosecond to complete.

At this rate we will be useless sooner rather than later.