
04-07-2025, 11:28 AM
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Join Date: Dec 2022
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CoachKandSportsguy
Remember, sometimes you have to sell first, to be able to buy when prices are on sale!
As Doug Kass says: "Investing is the one business that when products go on sale, the customers run out of the store!"
This sell off most closely reminds me, of the pandemic crash, because the impact is very unknown on future product prices, international supply chains, and the impact to inflation plus interest rates. The biggest difference is that the pandemic ignition source was an unknown virus, and this time its a known human with human foibles. And there were many failed bear market rallies in the spring of 2020, which were dazzling, but should be sold at the end of the day, as most long term bottoms end quietly, and anywhere from 4 weeks to 4 months or so later, depending on the ignition source and resulting game play.
And because of the human involvement, the market will counter trend rally on any, true or false, information suggesting an end to the current situation. Examples might be that there is a last minute delay on implementation rumor. The other human involvement is the FED, and that is another wild card, which helped end the pandemic sell off.
So volatility is considered at near extreme levels, and Friday's closing VIX suggests swings as wide as 5%, either way, which we have already seen overnight. Play small, sell large gains, and 3% 5% in a day or two annualizes to a huge gain, and you will miss the bottom, but you can enter with less risk of more down side when there is less uncertainty, remembering that uncertainty never goes away
good luck out there. . we all need it.
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Most people, including me, have a mix of stocks, bonds, money markets and cash.
Not a problem to rebalance and take advantage of the perceived short term panic.
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