Quote:
Originally Posted by dewilson58
It's been a great time to drive into the market.
Massive emotional sell-off...................came back nicely, now is it going to run???
Wait until June, might be too late for the easy gains.
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the future is uncertain, be nibble
Emotional
NO!, earnings forecasts are coming down. Companies are not giving forecast guidance this quarter's calls.
Easy scenario: zero earnings growth, average growth multiple, you have 4,000 SPX very easily.
GDP down, equities down, dollar down, oil down, bonds down, 10 year term premium rising, Fed playing the data waiting game -> -> this combo never an optimistic scenario. Technicals have a good couple of days and everyone is bullish?
Foreigners have stopped investing in the USA, but have yet to start selling. 401K month end salary systemic buying still happening, until employment falls, then emergency usage will cause 401K selling.
Other Bear Market not a good time to buy actual bear market rallies:
2022: 3/15/2022 - 3/29-2022 11% rally, by 5/12/2022 15+% percent selloff
2020: 7/31/2020 - 9/2/2020 10% rally by 9/23/2020 12+% selloff
2007-2008: had similar 8%+ rallies with 10% selloffs soon after
2000: 9/1/2000 -> 12/20/2000 20+% sell off, 8.6%% rally, by 3/22/2001 20% sell off
so the always recovered is true, but maybe not from the current levels
The only "good news" at the moment, is that Walmart, Target and Home Depot have resumed shipments from China after the WH meeting. In the latest week ships leaving China were 40% full, which means product scarcities will happen for a period of time. **Then expect a 10-15% price increase to absorb the tariffs and pass it along.
** info sourced from consumer goods P/E firm concerning tariff strategy
Tariff vs tax source comparison:
< $36,000 family 0% income tax earners: tariffs crushing, no relief even with tax relief
< 72,000 family 12% income tax earnings: tariffs crushing until tax relief given, then neutral, no change in spending, assuming tax free income
< 125,,000 family 22% income tax threshold: tariffs doable, but eats more than half of discretionary vacation / enjoyment surplus with tax relief
> $210,000 family, >22% income tax threshold, irritated beyond belief, but can easily survive
Project 2025 in full execution mode. . . will it work or tank the economy?
