Quote:
Originally Posted by biker1
Well, no, that is not how it works. The precipitation forecasts are presented as probability functions. The prognostications of many complex events are presented as probability functions. What actual data are you referring to? If it is model data then that is readily available but you won't be able to interpret it correctly.
|
What you are saying is not consistent with my experience. I consistently observe that they will predict a high percentage for rain (like 80 percent) in the morning, and then they will reduce the percentage hourly, and very often, there will be no rain at all. That has been my experience for several years of living in The Villages. They never present data about how accurate their forecasts have been in the past, so there is no way to evaluate their prediction success rates.