Reread my post. What I actually stated was that the precipitation forecasts are presented as probability functions. This is true. The probability function may change with time as new data becomes available. I have no idea who you mean when you say "they" so I can't comment on what verification results might be collected.
Quote:
Originally Posted by retiredguy123
What you are saying is not consistent with my experience. I consistently observe that they will predict a high percentage for rain (like 80 percent) in the morning, and then they will reduce the percentage hourly, and very often, there will be no rain at all. That has been my experience for several years of living in The Villages. They never present data about how accurate their forecasts have been in the past, so there is no way to evaluate their prediction success rates.
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