Quote:
Originally Posted by biker1
Reread my post. What I actually stated was that the precipitation forecasts are presented as probability functions. This is true. The probability function may change with time as new data becomes available. I have no idea who you mean when you say "they" so I can't comment on what verification results might be collected.
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I agree that the probability function can change, but my experience is that it almost always changes to predict a lower probability of rain rather than a higher probability of rain. This indicates to me that they are deliberately predicting more rain than they should be predicting. Apparently, they would rather predict rain that doesn't occur than to not predict rain that does occur. That is my experience. We can agree to disagree, but that is my experience over many years in Florida.