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Originally Posted by arbajeda
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I have done my research and while I'll concede that this lawsuit which has been affirmed by both the US Dept of Commerce (USDOC) and the US International Trade Commission (USITC), it will most likely more severely impact HDK Electric Vehicles (aka Evolution) than Star EV.
As context, the legal basis for the petition filing by the American Transportation Vehicle Manufacturers (basically Textron aka EGO and Yamaha) against Chinese Low-Speed Personal Transportation Vehicles (LSPTVs) is two-fold:
1. Antidumping (AD): Allegations that Chinese carts are sold in the U.S. at unfairly low ("dumped") prices.
2. Countervailing: Duty (CVD): Allegations that Chinese government subsidies are providing unfair cost advantages.
Together, these filings pave the way for significant duties aimed at restoring competitive balance for U.S. manufacturers like EZGO and Yamaha. Really, only those too are immune to any final ruling and imposed duties with retroactive effect.
In fact, based on Chinese exposure and these looming imposed duties, I asked ChatGPT to rate the risk of corporate insolvency on a scale from 0-100 with 0 being absolutely no risk and 100 being bankruptcy. It scored:
Yamaha: 5 (near-zero risk) primarily for its global diversity and importation from Japan over China
EZGO: 10 (very low risk) only some parts (electronics?) are sourced from China
Star EV: 55 (moderate risk, survivable with adaptation)
Evolution: 85 (highest risk, needs radical changes or rescue)
It further suggested if Star did go bankrupt, it would likely file Chapter 11 (reorganization) vs. Chapter 7 (liquidation) adding "85 means extreme risk of insolvency, with both Chapter 7 and 11 on the table, but a Chapter 7 outcome is plausible without external help. Star EV (Score 55): Not likely to file bankruptcy at all unless prolonged stress occurs. If it did, Chapter 11 is far more likely—they have U.S. operations, a brand, and partial supply chain adaptability."
TIMING
Finally - and importantly - the reason we may not have heard about this is the Final Ruling for both the AD and CVD (and immediately following the imposed
retroactive duties) that was initially due back April 7, 2025 was delayed.
A Federal Register notice issued on May 8, 2025, confirms that USDOC has extended the AD preliminary deadline, and the new final AD deadline is now 75 days after that preliminary, which itself is limited to July 16, 2025. Source:
https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/...2025-08088.pdf
And following that ruling next month, the Final AD Determination is expected 75 days post-preliminary, thus around mid-October 2025. And the Final Final CVD Determination will likely be aligned with AD timing, potentially October 2025.
Remember there is also the Final USITC Injury Ruling which is planned after the Final USDOC AD and CVD Determinations, probably late Q4 2025 or, more likely, Q1 2026.
And only then will duties be issued: If ITC affirms injury, AD/CVD orders will be published immediately again, likely early 2026.
Key Dates:
* By mid-July 2025: Commerce must issue a public preliminary AD finding.
* By October 2025: Expect final AD/CVD determinations.
* By Q1 2026: Final ITC injury ruling and duty imposition shortly thereafter.
So, yes, they can flood the market with the D5 Ranger and the newer (and super cool, literally, they have a refrigerator built in!) D5 Max, but unless they pivot quickly and/or have outside investment, they're going to be hit with significant duties including on all of the carts they are currently selling and have sold since
October 30, 2024 (AD) and as early as September 7, 2024 (CVD).
So there's more on my research - please correct me if I am mistaken.
And, of course, everything in life involves risk.
But I like to do as much research as limit my exposure, particularly when one is considering a $10k+ "investment." And from what I'm seeing, I would rather pay closer to $20K on a cart than risk even $12K on something that the Open AI GPT- 4o model is currently telling me is "highest risk" and "needs radical changes or rescue."
The same can be said about EZGo Liberty (very low risk) vs. Star EV Sirius 4 (moderate risk), but the difference - as I see it - is that Star EV is survivable, but the financial burden of that pivot will not necessarily need to be born by any consumer today - and might be part of the reason why The Villages is selling them, and indeed using them as their rental fleet in Middleton, and not any other moderate/high risk brands.
Just my 2 cents - or more like $21,000. :-)