Typically, model forecasted storm tracks show considerable skill about 4 days out with increasing accuracy as you get closer to landfall. Occasionally, I see some remarkably accurate storm tracks 5-6 days out with the NCEP global model. Furthermore, the uncertainty in the storm tracks can be quantified. Simulations of storm intensity changes typically have less fidelity than the storm tracks. I am a retired research meteorologist and I worked at NASA and the National Weather Service where I developed research and operational computer forecast models.
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Originally Posted by JWinATL
My late husband was with the National Flood Insurance Program for 25 years covering the entire Southeastern US. The best I can tell you is (a) that’s why I don’t live on either coast; and (b) they really have no clue what a hurricane is actually going to do day to day.
Be alert. That’s about the size of it.
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