I've read the updated entry.

I agree with his "let's see what happens" attitude but I disagree with some aspects of how he characterized the way we got into this mess. While he quite rightly is skeptical about Obama's intent to FUND what he SAYS he's going to do, he seems to gloss over the fact that that is EXACTLY what the previous administrations have done. Big talk, no bucks.

I can't say I blame him for being pessimistic.

One thing that nobody has mentioned in all this. We were without manned spaceflight capability from 1975 (really 1972) until 1981. Apollo-Soyuz in 1975 was a one-off with, literally, leftover Apollo parts (except for the docking module). Apollo 17 blasted off in December '72.

So here we are looking at no U.S.-operated manned spaceflights from 2011 (anyone who believes the last shuttle mission will actually fly before the end of the year hasn't been paying attention - delays are VERY likely) until.... ?

We don't know when Orion will be ready. Or if the Dragon will be made man-ready (Musk says he can do it in a couple of years). ..or if someone will come up with something else.