I re-read my post and you're right - it sounds like I might have had an anti-Israel agenda with it.

Let me state that my point was to demonstrate how difficult it is to predict much of anything in that corner of the world.

We thought Saddam had WMDs (heck, we had the paper trail from selling him the goods) and it looks like all he had was bluster.

Ahmedinejad is boasting the same way Saddam did. Is it bluster to scare people into submission or is it The Real Thing?

We treat the Saudis as our allies but they we where almost all the 9/11 attackers came from.

We condemn the Israelis for building some apartment buildings when they're the only ones that have proven they will give up land for peace (Sinai to Egypt).

It's like the ads for mutual funds say on TV: "Past performance is no guarantee of future results"