The tipping point in the OP was the destruction of the Deepwater Horizon. The rest of the 'conspiracy theory' only holds together if you have that event and it causes a suspension of drilling.

So unless George Soros blew up the DH, it IS a coincidence. Give the size of our economy, there's ALWAYS going to be SOMEONE who was in a position to profit IF some disaster happened.

A couple of years from now, people are going to be screaming at the folks who bought BP stock around now and made 60% on their money in a year or two. No conspiracy, just the way the market reacts to a disaster.