dk: I see what you're saying but there is one part of your logic that is a bit flawed.
When you said "you have no insurance, you get cancer...". Well, that would be true if the *mandate* didn't exist. As I understand it - correct me if I'm wrong - the mandate says everyone has to have coverage. Now, surely a small percentage of those people will have cancer but most won't. In addition, the uninsured are disproportionatly young people who don't have access to employer-paid plans or have elected no coverage (usually for economic reasons when the employee-paid portion is substantial).
Part of the rationalization for this (right, wrong or indifferent) is to get EVERYONE into the risk pool.
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