[l2ridehd]

The real estate market is very much a function of pockets. And the pockets of good and bad seem to be small. I still reside in Northern VA and see some areas where homes sell in days and others take many months. TV is certainly a pocket with it's local impacts. Lots of homes being sold as baby boomers reach the magic retirement age. A lot has to do with how easy it is for them to sell the home where they live if that is part of the plan. And even more with their willingness to accept the current home value vs a false expectation based on 2005 values.

One thing that seems to be having a major impact on selling is reality pricing. A year or so ago, people were still pricing their home at the higher end and not accepting the fact there had been a significant correction to the housing bubble. Then they would chase the market down until they were able to sell. One to two years on the market has now become 6 to 12 months. Or they could never sell because they were upside down on the value. More and more homes are being listed and sold with a price that reflects the market today. People realize they cannot get the price they could have got just a few years past. More and more sellers are placing their home on the market at a market reality price. This is a very good indication that the market has reached the bottom. Yes there are still a lot more foreclosures to impact the available inventory so the backlog will take longer to dissipate. However it is less likely to have a negative impact on pricing then the first wave did because of the more realistic pricing of the non foreclosure homes.

TV market is a pocket of it's own making and home pricing is more a reflection of the margin the developer is willing to accept then any other factor. My bet is they will take as much margin as possible and therefor the market has already reached any bottom that will happen. They control that with build volume more then anything. And with the rest of the country being more acceptable of the reality of a depressed market, TV volume will increase, not drop. Remember one really key ingredient to TV market. The first of the baby boomers are reaching 65 this year at a rate of 10,000 plus every month. This is a somewhat new factor that will drive TV prices up, not down. Many of those people who had a plan to retire at 60 or 62 made a decision to wait until 65 to retire with the hope of an improvement in the market and an ability to further re-build there retirement nest egg. That "wait to retire" window is now reaching a point of reality just as the willingness to accept the lower home pricing reality coincide. This will have a positive impact on TV market. Less on the rest of the country, but will impact TV.