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Originally Posted by BBQMan
Afghanistan is not and will not be a democracy in our lifetime. 42% of the population of Afghanistan and ~20% of the population of Pakistan are Pashtuns and speak Pashto. This is a language that is, in general, not shared by others in either country. The Pashtuns are a clannish and patriarchal people who have been in place since the time of Alexander the Great.
There is a logical country for these 50 million people and it would be called Pashtunistan. They exist as a clan with their own values and have moved back and forth across the Afghanistan-Pakistan border forever. They continue to do so as a nomadic people. The idea of the Pashtun people having their own country thrills Pakistan just as much as the idea of a Kurdistan thrills Turkey. This is why the government of Pakistan does little to curb what we refer to as terrorists. To do so would be to voluntarily tear their country apart.
Within the clan(s) there are tribes led by their elders. The tribes are organized as patriarchies. Each extended family has its acknowledged leader and an unacknowledged but very real ‘Capo’. None of these people - the tribal elders, the family leaders, the strong arms and their people has any interest in democracy, civil rights or our values. They have their own set of values and their own structure and do not wish to change. So why are we trying to make them change?
If we wish to achieve stability in this region we first need to accept the very real and unchanging structure and set up a way to work with it. The Pashtuns like Al Qaeda about as much as we do, but the enemy of my enemy is my friend. The solution will not be easy but it must start with accepting that they will live with the structure and values that have persisted for several thousand years. We can build friends here, but it will take time and mutual respect rather than drones and troops.
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Good summary, BBQ. Your description of the Pashtuns also seems to explain why the government of Afghanistan under Hamid Karzai, only "governs" a small area of the eastern part of the country around Kabul, the capital. The southern part of the country adjacent to the Pakistani border is controlled by the Pashtun tribes. If the U.S. or India ever chose to attack Pakistan, almost certainly the Pashtuns on both sides of the border would fight against that country and the possibilty of Indian occupation.
Farther north, towards the borders with the former Turkic states that were part of the U.S.S.R., the Tajik and Uzbek tribes prevail. Only the area around Kabul isn't controlled by the tribes.
No occupying country has ever been able to overcome the historic strength and control of the tribes. The British and the Russians tried before us and left, admitting failure. Even during the few decades in the early 20th century when the Afghan kings ruled from Kabul, they essentially used the tribes as the structure of their government.
Afghanistan is certainly not a totalarian state, nor is it a federal or parliamentary republic. It certainly is not democratic. For centuries Afghanistan has been a collection of loosely affiliated tribes, almost small countries unto themselves, with their own structures of rules, laws, leadership and customs.
You're absolutely correct, BBQ. The chance that the U.S. will succeed in changing the tribal structure of the region is about the same as the Brits and the Russians before us. The only question is: when will we admit it and cut our losses of blood and treasure already spent?