Quote:
Originally Posted by l2ridehd
I would agree with the last 5 trading days of the year, not sure about the first two of next year.
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OK..I went to The source (Stocktrader's Almanac) and found this about the so-called 'Santa Rally' period for stock market investors. It does cover the last 5 trading days of the year + the first 2 trading days of the next year.
The 'Santa Rally' isn't perfect (what is?); it doesn't always occur. But from a 41-year study (from 1969 thru 2009), it showed positive returns 75.6% of the time. That is excellent.
Best year was 2008, when the S&P 500 advanced +7.4% during the 7-day period. Worst year was 1999, when it went down -4.0% during those 7 days.
Average return for the 7-day period over the 41 years was +1.6%
During the 41 years of study, the best (overall) day for gains was Day #7. Worst was Day #5. On a yearly basis, some days did show losses. Remember, about 1/4 of the years showed a loss during the 7-day period.
1969 thru 2009 ......... 2010
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Day 1, +0.33% ....... +0.04%
Day 2, +0.30% ....... +0.14%
Day 3, +0.08% ....... +0.07%
Day 4, +0.22% ...... (-0.16%)
Day 5, +0.02% ....... +0.02%
Day 6, +0.16% ....... +1.03%
Day 7, +0.45% ...... (-0.06%)
Total: +1.6% (rounded, per study)
2010: +1.097% (compounded results)
SPY (ETF proxy for SP 500)
So far in 2011
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Day 1 (12/23) +0.89%
Great start for 2011. 6 days to go. Anything can happen -- pro or con.
Gene