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Old 01-04-2012, 05:53 PM
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glgene glgene is offline
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Default Final Day (#7) of Santa Claus Rally

Jan. 4, 2012 ... Today is Day #7 of the Santa Claus Rally period. The covering period is now complete for this year. 3 cheers for Santa!

SP 500 ETF proxy: SPY
------------------------
Day 1, 12/23..: +0.89%
Day 2, 12/27..: +0.08%
Day 3, 12/28..: (-1.31%)
Day 4, 12/29..: +1.03%
Day 5, 12/30..: (-0.49%)
Day 6, Jan. 3..: +1.59%
Day 7, Jan. 4..: +0.16%

Thru Day #7 (final day), we're at a cumulative (compounded) return of +1.94%. The full 7-day average return, from 1969 thru 2009, was +1.6%. From 1950 and on, the return was 1.5% Returns have been positive about 75% of the time. Doesn't work every year.

Here is the final tally this year (rounded to nearest 1-place decimal; last 5 trading days of Dec. + first 2 trading days of Jan).

Dow Jones, +1.6%
SP 500 ---, +1.9%
Nasdaq ---, +1.9%

So...forget the cookies. Santa gets eggnog!

Next tests: (1) First 5 trading days of January, and then (2) all trading days in January. The latter is referred to as the January Barometer (or Effect).

So far, so good. If it ends up a winning trifecta, Santa is going to get tanked on 3 treats of eggnog! Don't know if he can handle that; he's not getting any younger. Or doesn't he age?

Gene