To address the question of the original poster it will be difficult to address anything during this campaign or the presidential election IMHO. It will be difficult because the deciding factor for both the GOP nominee and eventually the presidency will be independent voters who have grown in numbers since the 2008 election. And since independent voters more so than those labeled Democrats or Republicans don't decide until their in the voting booth it would be an educated guess by even the best of us.

Once the battle begins between the two presidential nominee's it will become increasingly clear whether the country is going red or blue. for now it appears purely speculation and wishful thinking by many of us voters.