Quote:
Originally Posted by billethkid
why is it presumed that if a 3rd party was formed by whoever with an R, that "republicans would drain votes from Romney and assure Obama a win"??
I believe there would be a majority of those R folks that would be unhappy but not so unhappy to allow Obama a free pass for another 4 years.
And the other ongoing false assumption of all the D voters that voted for Obama will be back to reelect him. There will be a fair percentage that like the rest of disappointed Americans will not buy his rhetoric a second time. Whether the percentage will be sufficient depends how Obama's ratings hold up.
btk
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You are right that the assumption that a third party run would assure an Obama win is flawed. However, it is fair to assume that a third party R candidate would siphon more votes from the republican than it would from Obama. In a close election, that could be enough to swing the election a la the Nader effect in Florida in 2000. A third party run by Ron Paul might be interesting, as much of his support is young voters, a block that overwhelmingly supported Obama in 08, and could swing things either way.