Quote:
Originally Posted by billethkid
...Does anybody really believe the auto industry is seeing improving sales is attributable to the auto bail out?...
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Yes, I do.
Everyone seems to forget that the "auto bailout" was a forced bankruptcy wherein the government provided the "debtor in possession" (D-I-P) financing. Both GM and Chrysler came within a very short time of filing for a liquidation-type bankruptcy. They were essentially out of money, operating with negative cash flow, and their creditors had stopped negotiating. If you recall, at the time...
- The bondholders of both companies had stopped negotiating how big the a "writeoff haircut" they would take. They were prepared to let the companies be liquidated and use the preferential position of their bond terms to get a more generous payout than negotiationg any further.
- The UAW had refused any further concessions without more "give" on the part of the bondholders.
- The unsecured creditors, mostly the auto parts suppliers who were not being paid their accounts receivable, were all on the verge of bankruptcy and liquidation. Some had already filed.
- And given the stalemate among all the creditors, the equity holders could not and would not agree to voluntarily modify the value of their ownership position.
What the government did--mostly the Treasury Department under Tim Geithner with the President Obama serving as spokesman--was to strong arm all the parties to file for a pre-arranged bankruptcy in exchange for the government providing the necessary D-I-P loans. (None of the commercial banks or insurance companies, the usual providers of D-I-P loans, would provide bankruptcy financing as they were all badly undercapitalized at the time and would not undertake the kind and size of risk inherent in this type of financing.)
The pre-arranged bankruptcy worked exactly as it should have. The lenders had to write off substantial amounts of their bond loans, the UAW was forced to modify it's union contract terms, in pay, benefits and working conditions, as well as agree to a no-strike term for a considerable time. And the equity holders of both GM and Chrysler basically lost their entire investments.
Both companies stayed under the guidance of the bankruptcy courts for only a short time because all the terms that normally would have been negotiated by the unsecured and secured lenders and the stockholders had already been dictated by the government, who was providing the short-term financing.
The action by the government precluded massive and immediate unemployment which would have numbered in the millions of jobs. Since then, the economy has improved somewhat and the auto companies could manufacture and sell cars and trucks at a profit with their restructured balance sheets and cost structures. And in less than two years both GM and Chrysler have paid back the government's D-I-P loans.
I know that permitting free market forces to continue to try to resolve the problem at the time would have resulted in the liquidation of those two iconic American companies, taking most of the U.S. auto industry with them. Without question, both GM and Chrysler would not be operating today without the intervention of the federal government. For those who say that would have been a good thing, you have the right to your opinion. I don't agree.
So yes, I not only believe but I
know that action by the federal government worked in this case.