How About Discussing An Important, Meaningful Issue?
There have been many articles published in the last several weeks opining that the probability that Israel will attack Iran is very high. One of the leading Israeli journalists was interviewed on Fareed Zakaria's Global Public Square program this morning and confirmed that his contacts with the government suggests that an attack on Israel will be ordered by Bibi Netanyahu and Ehud Barak, probably within weeks. Any such attack is admitted to have only a slowing effect on the Iranian nuclear weapon program. Most experts admit that Iran will have nuclear weapons within a few years. An Israeli attack would only slow their progress by from 18-36 months.
The journalist opined that there was some popular support among the Jewish people, somewhat less among the Israeli Knesset. Many of the more thoughtful Jews know that an attack will almost certainly cause "rockets to rain down on Israel and a land war likely to begin". Many fear that such an attack will cause what have been disjointed enemies of Israel and the United States to coalesce. That would include the more militant Islamic groups--Hamas, al Quaeda, the Muslim Brotherhood--as well as groups which oppose Israel and the U.S., but until now have conducted themselves with some neutrality. Iran would counter-attack, of course. But Syria and Egypt, both with major military forces could join them. Turkey, the only NATO member in the region would not be expected to enter the fray. Most pundits agree that the U.S. will be blamed as complicit in any attack by Israel, whether or not that is true. A dramatic ramp-up of Islamic terrorism within the U.S. and against U.S. citizens and installations worldwide is expected to result.
From Israel's point-of-view, their militant political leaders believe they have no choice, that continued diplomacy and international sanctions without the cooperation of Russia and China is not slowing Iranian nuclear weapons development. Both Netenyahu and Barak played important roles in the military leadership of Israel's successful attack on Egypt, Syria and Jordan in 1967 that lead to the Six Day War. In essence, they've done it before and they believe they can be successful militarily again. They believe that Israel has the military power to prevail against any circumstances if they attack Iran. Some experts are far less certain of that. Some believe that Israel will attack, expecting that the U.S. will support them militarily if they find that their military estimates were overly optimistic.
From the U.S. perspective, the last thing we want is a more turbulent anti-American Middle East. Any coalescing of U.S. enemies and opponents in the region will clearly have dramatic and negative effects, both in the U.S. as well as around the world. A major concern is the high probability that the supply of Middle Eastern oil to the U.S. and the rest of the world will be interrupted for a lengthy period of time. Of course, ramped up levels of terrorist attacks against the U.S. is also a major concern. All this is happening at a time when there is little appetite for more war among the U.S. population and a very limited ability to pay for any further major military activities without dramatic negative effects on the U.S. and probably the world economy, both of which are recovering only mildly and are very fragile. And it is also happening during a period of turbulent pre-election campaigning where the electoral outcome for the U.S. presidency is quite unclear. Many have said that the current situation is more dire and dangerous than the Cuban missile crisis in 1963.
President Obama meets with Bibi Netanyahu tomorrow. Many believe that Netanyahu will reject any proposal that diplomacy and the sanctions against Iran be continued, even escalated. Most believe that Netanyahu is here to tell the U.S. president that they intend to attack Iran, but in the intertest of the U.S., they won't tell us when, where or how they will launch such an attack. That would permit us to claim we had nothing to do with any Israeli attack, a claim not likely to be believed by anyone. Most foreign relations experts think that's the best Netanyahu will offer.
What should President Obama tell Netanyahu? What should the U.S. do? What should we do if Israel attacks Iran? What should we do if the response by Middle Eastern military forces can't be countered by Israel? What should the U.S. do if there are widespread rocket attacks on Israel, with the effect of widespread damage and loss of life?
Let's not get into how the event might play out from a diplomacy perspective. Lots will be said that may not turn out to be either the real intent or true. Do we have the military capability to enter into a widespread land war? Can we afford to do so? Is there a political will in either the U.S. population or in the Congress to authorize a major military response?
My question is what should the U.S. really be prepared to do? Should whatever U.S. response is planned be debated and ultimately voted on by the U.S. Congress? What should President Obama tell Bibi Netanyahu tomorrow?
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