This discussion assumes a US – Iran model with the US having the capability of restraining Israel. That capability exists only for a period. Israel could today use ‘bunker buster’ weapons as a method of preventing Iran from developing atomic weapons. Israel does not have such weapons today and unless we decide to provide them will not have in the near future.

If Iran succeeds in fully hardening its production sites and then succeeds in developing atomic weapons, Israel’s choices become few. Iran has threatened/promised to use nuclear weapons to destroy Israel as soon as it possesses them. Israel’s response may be to destroy those weapons in a preemptive strike. Since such a strike could no longer be carried out with ‘bunker busters’ Israel would have to use its nuclear arsenal. According to Jane’s Defense Weekly, Israel has between 100 and 300 nuclear weapons, most of which are two stage thermonuclear devices with a minimum impact of 200 kiloton and some in the megaton range.

Should Iran strike first, Israel has a more than sufficient response capability in its fully hardened missile sites and its nuclear capable Dolphin submarines. Either of these cases in truly a disaster. The challenge for the US is preventing the possibility of nuclear/thermonuclear war in the Middle East. Israel has and has had since 1967 nuclear capability and a strict never strike first policy. Iran has not had nuclear weapons and does not have a never strike first policy. Our challenge is not how to negotiate, but how to make certain that Iran can never possess nuclear weapons.

This requires the destruction of Iran’s enrichment program. It can be done voluntarily by Iran or by outside force. The only sanction left that can potentially move Iran from its intent to possess nuclear weapons is a blockade. No petroleum products or weapons either into or out of Iran. We still have this capability, but must be ready for reaction from the rest of the world, particularly Russia and China. President Obama has not, to date, been willing to stand up to pressure from Putin. This has not been a good thing and certainly would not be helpful in such a showdown. The situation is strikingly similar to that faced by President Kennedy in the Cuban missile crisis.

The choice appears to be a blockade and potentially a conventional war now or a nuclear war involving strikes against Israel, Iran and the US. Iran will certainly not hit the ‘Little Satan’ without concurrent strikes against the ‘Great Satan’. No easy choices remain.