I think you are right in your analysis of polls in general, but based on what I am hearing on the ground and reading, this is translating into a landslide perhaps for Romney unless he screws up the debates, which is surely possible.

This last little stunt on immigration has rubbed folks the wrong way. People are talking about how you enforce ANY of it. How do you know how long anyone has been here since they were here illegally in the first place ? Never a word from the President on the scams they already are playing with our taxes, etc. It has not had the effect he hoped for and as the days go on,it will get worse as it settles in exactly what he had done.

As I said in another post...this country is about LAWS, not MEN and he cannot make decisions on what laws he will enforce and what laws he will not.

But, polls are just that...polls. Campaigns use them to spend their money and decide where to spend it but it does not predict how it will come out.

My feelings are based on some polls but mostly talking to folks actually in politics !!!