[eweissenbach]

One person might average 12%, another might average 20%, while others average 0% and less. The truth is that none of these people have the answer, some were lucky and others were not. I remember conducting a mandatory meeting for registered reps (I am a Certified Financial Consulatant) in the late 90s. I asked the reps what they would counsel theirclients to expect for a return in the next few years. Several said that the 10 year rolling average for the S and P 500 was around 10%, so they said that is what they expected. I pointed out that at that time, the markets had enjoyed an average of 20%+ return over the last 5 years or so, therefore if you really beleived a 10% ten year return was the norm, you would have to assume the market would be down the next few years in order to return to the norm. They thought that was unrealistic, but, in fact, that is exactly what happened. People that think they have the markets figured out are people who have made some very lucky bets, just like people who think they have the craps table figured out. I have many years of following financial markets very closely, and I can tell you that a conservative, diversified approach is likely to serve you well, and dollar cost averaging into low cost index funds is a pretty good way to go.