I've lived in the Jacksonville area for 9 years. The month I moved here was September 2004, when 4 hurricanes passed through. An older tree in my front yard blew over. We didn't have to evacuate or anything, and haven't needed to since. Other than that, I haven't had any damages from hurricanes. The Jacksonville area has been spared any direct hits for about 40 years now.
I just looked it up online - Hurricane Dora in 1964 was the only hurricane to make landfall in Jacksonville in recorded history. And the Beatles went ahead with their scheduled concert the next day on Jacksonville.
The homes in Nocatee are in flood zone X, which is a "once every 500 years" flood zone. The people I know who live there can decide whether or not to buy flood insurance - a lot of them do, at about $300 - $350/year. They say they don't pay any more on HO insurance than further inland. It is usually the homes within 1 or 1.5 miles of the coast that have higher rates.
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