Quote:
Originally Posted by glgene
I heard on CNBC today (12/30) the following commentary by one of the guests interviewed...re: the so-called January Effect:
1) The first 5 trading days of January has an 85% probability of predicting the gain vs. loss yearly status for the market.
2) For action the entire month of January, it sets a 76% yearly probability.
Disclosure: Notice I didn't say 100% predictability. So don't shoot the messenger.
Gene
|
Today (Jan. 8) marks the 5th trading day of 2014 (Jan. 2,3,6,7,8). Here are the 5-day stats:
* Dow 30.... -0.7% less than end-of-day Dec. 31
* SP 500..... -0.6% " " " " " " "
* Nasdaq..... -0.3% " " " " " " "
Thus, all 3 indexes show a (small) loss for the first 5 days of January. Draw your own conclusions, if any.
Gene