[sunnyatlast]

The original post is an opinion piece by the editorial board of NEJM.

An opinion piece by editorial staff is not an original article publishing research findings that are scientifically proven.

It's almost funny when the sycophant proponents of the nurse and other anti-quarantine followers here keep saying "a quarantine must be decided by science, not emotion, fear, irrationality or opinion"……but here in this thread, we are being told we're fools if we don't agree and decide based an OPINION piece!

THIS is an original article based in SCIENCE and scientific method, not opinion:

The Lancet

Assessment of the potential for international dissemination of Ebola virus via commercial air travel during the 2014 west African outbreak

Isaac I Bogoch MD a b, Maria I Creatore PhD c, Martin S Cetron MD d, John S Brownstein PhD e f, Nicki Pesik MD g, Jennifer Miniota MSc c, Theresa Tam MD h, Wei Hu MSA c, Adriano Nicolucci MSA c, Saad Ahmed BSc i, James W Yoon MISt c, Isha Berry c, Prof Simon Hay DSc j k, Aranka Anema PhD f l, Andrew J Tatem PhD j m n, Derek MacFadden MD a, Matthew German MSc c, Dr Kamran Khan MD

Summary

Background
The WHO declared the 2014 west African Ebola epidemic a public health emergency of international concern in view of its potential for further international spread. Decision makers worldwide are in need of empirical data to inform and implement emergency response measures. Our aim was to assess the potential for Ebola virus to spread across international borders via commercial air travel and assess the relative efficiency of exit versus entry screening of travellers at commercial airports.

Methods
We analysed International Air Transport Association data for worldwide flight schedules between Sept 1, 2014, and Dec 31, 2014, and historic traveller flight itinerary data from 2013 to describe expected global population movements via commercial air travel out of Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone. Coupled with Ebola virus surveillance data, we modelled the expected number of internationally exported Ebola virus infections, the potential effect of air travel restrictions, and the efficiency of airport-based traveller screening at international ports of entry and exit. We deemed individuals initiating travel from any domestic or international airport within these three countries to have possible exposure to Ebola virus. We deemed all other travellers to have no significant risk of exposure to Ebola virus.

Findings
Based on epidemic conditions and international flight restrictions to and from Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone as of Sept 1, 2014 (reductions in passenger seats by 51% for Liberia, 66% for Guinea, and 85% for Sierra Leone), our model projects 2·8 travellers infected with Ebola virus departing the above three countries via commercial flights, on average, every month. 91 547 (64%) of all air travellers departing Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone had expected destinations in low-income and lower-middle-income countries. Screening international travellers departing three airports would enable health assessments of all travellers at highest risk of exposure to Ebola virus infection.

Interpretation
Decision makers must carefully balance the potential harms from travel restrictions imposed on countries that have Ebola virus activity against any potential reductions in risk from Ebola virus importations. Exit screening of travellers at airports in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone would be the most efficient frontier at which to assess the health status of travellers at risk of Ebola virus exposure, however, this intervention might require international support to implement effectively.

Funding: Canadian Institutes of Health Research.

Introduction……..

Assessment of the potential for international dissemination of Ebola virus via commercial air travel during the 2014 west African outbreak : The Lancet