First, like a football game, there is a considerable amount of momentum built up in the "preliminary" Presidential primaries or caucuses (Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Nevada, Florida and Michigan). If a candidate begins to distance himself from the field within each party, his/her chances in subsequent primaries improve. That's simply he result of "the big mo'", momentum.

But for sure we'll all know who the candidates for President will be by the evening of February 5, less than a month from now. On that day the Presidential primaries will be held in about 2/3 of the states, a truly super-duper Tuesday.

Then we can get down to the real comparison between real candidates and await their "coronation" at their party conventions this summer.