Speculators gone wild -real estate prices

[TrudyM]

OK- I know prices are what the market will bear but really. :duck:
When I look at a house that is preowned and compare the listing price with the last sold at price (listed on Zillow) a lot of the listings were bought within the last two years and are listed for 50 to 100 thousand over what they paid. And I recognize quite a few of them from when I was looking at rentals a year ago. I think there are some real estate speculators at work here. I understand 20 thou, real estate commission and then a little profit but when a house sold new construction for 60% of the current asking I think that the speculation is out of hand.
Do you think it is a bubble that will burst or level out. I mean the number of preowned on the market both VLS, MLS and buy owner as a % of total units built in the villages seems high to me. I know they are selling but how much do you think the hype of the sales people "grab it now or it will be gone" is influencing things.

[mickey100]

Part of the allure of some of the preowneds may be location. IMHO, the location of many of the new areas is not as good as some of the central areas of the Villages. I suppose that sales people can be influencing things as we'll with their "buy now or you'll lose out" spiel.

[villagerjack]

OK- I know prices are what the market will bear but really. :duck:
When I look at a house that is preowned and compare the listing price with the last sold at price (listed on Zillow) a lot of the listings were bought within the last two years and are listed for 50 to 100 thousand over what they paid. And I recognize quite a few of them from when I was looking at rentals a year ago. I think there are some real estate speculators at work here. I understand 20 thou, real estate commission and then a little profit but when a house sold new construction for 60% of the current asking I think that the speculation is out of hand.
Do you think it is a bubble that will burst or level out. I mean the number of preowned on the market both VLS, MLS and buy owner as a % of total units built in the villages seems high to me. I know they are selling but how much do you think the hype of the sales people "grab it now or it will be gone" is influencing things.

I guess if you are an owner, prices do not seem to be out of hand but if you were waiting to buy perhaps they seem speculative. Remember it is the monthly payment that drives sales and interest rates are still at historic 50 year lows and stick market has recovered.

[villagerjack]

In many cases we are just back to 2006-2007 levels so, no I don't think there is much speculation or hype.,Just real demand.

[rubicon]

The prices today still have not reached the 2005-2007 prices. Back then they told you what you were going to pay and what you were going to get there was no negotiations . so I told the sales rep what I wanted in a house and at what price. Three weeks later she called and it meant our satisfaction including the location.

there are people buying homes here who may/maynot live here and using them exclusively as rentals.

[Billyworld]

I think prices will rise for the next few years and then stabilize. Once The Villages is built out and all the "snowbirds" retire and move down here full time, or minus the summer months, this place will be a madhouse. If you think "The Season" is bad now, you ain't seen nothing yet. At that point The Villages will be so crowded that the shine will have worn off. You will then see several houses for sale on every street as people start leaving The Villages. At that point the prices will drop and be in line with the rest of the state. As a Real Estate licensee in Florida, I predicted the housing crash that we all watched and predicted the housing crash in California in the early 90's. Everyone thought I was nuts at the time only to come back and say "How did you know the end was near"? With that I will be long gone and have both my properties sold selling before the bust at the top dollar as I did in the past two bursts. Yes the Bust is coming and the bubble will burst!

[TrudyM]

In many cases we are just back to 2006-2007 levels so, no I don't think there is much speculation or hype.,Just real demand.

And what happened to the prices in 2008 through 2010. Some of these I look at sold for 40 60 thousand in 2010 than people paid for them in 2005 or 2006 and now they are back on the market for 30 to 40 thousand more than the 2005 price so the person who bought them in 2010 is marking them up 70 to 90 thousand over what they paid 4 years ago. But the ones that get me is the ones that purchased 13 months ago and are listing for 60 70 thou more than they paid. I don't think they will get it but still it has an effect on the overall climate of the market in the villages. And I am not even going to the developer is putting pools on all the decent size lots and I don't want a pool place.

[janmcn]

There are so many variables that even the developer has no control over. For instance; what will the final tally from the IRS be? What will the water situation be in the future? How about the frequency of sinkholes? What will the Florida Legislature allow insurance companies to get away with? What shopping and dining will be coming this way? These are just a few things that could influence real estate prices in The Villages.

[TrudyM]

I guess if you are an owner, prices do not seem to be out of hand but if you were waiting to buy perhaps they seem speculative. Remember it is the monthly payment that drives sales and interest rates are still at historic 50 year lows and stick market has recovered.

No I don't think of it that way, the real cost is the alternative investment cost of the money. If you pay 50 thousand more for a place then the real cost is the income you are loosing by not investing that money. Borrowing the money instead of using your own is a leverage to invest issue and in my mind does not come into play when looking at the value of an real estate purchase. I always look at buying a house as an investment with hopefully a return as we never know what the future will hold. But that's just me.

[DianeM]

Sellers will sell for what the market will bear.

[rubicon]

I think prices will rise for the next few years and then stabilize. Once The Villages is built out and all the "snowbirds" retire and move down here full time, or minus the summer months, this place will be a madhouse. If you think "The Season" is bad now, you ain't seen nothing yet. At that point The Villages will be so crowded that the shine will have worn off. You will then see several houses for sale on every street as people start leaving The Villages. At that point the prices will drop and be in line with the rest of the state. As a Real Estate licensee in Florida, I predicted the housing crash that we all watched and predicted the housing crash in California in the early 90's. Everyone thought I was nuts at the time only to come back and say "How did you know the end was near"? With that I will be long gone and have both my properties sold selling before the bust at the top dollar as I did in the past two bursts. Yes the Bust is coming and the bubble will burst!

Billyworld: I do not disagree with your rationale. But tell me where then will people go? and in this economy how do you properly time the sell before the bust. The WSJ reports on the housing market and one month its up and the next its back to 2009 levels, etc. Many of the people who bought here but haven't retired rent out their homes I'm told by a village employee that this month of February has seen a record high in renters.

'The upside is that amenities are stressed and will continue to be until or unless more are provided

[villagerjack]

Billy world...what makes you so sure that the snowbirds will retire and mover down here full time? Most of the snowbirds I know will keep this as a second home,as I will. Your negative speculation, based on zero facts, is just negative speculation. Please stick with the facts.

[Challenger]

Quite a few very suspect statements about price increases in this thread. Accounting for location differences , upgrades , remaining bond balance at time of sale, the prices may differ much less than anecdotal-incomplete info seen here. Only a competent appraisal will acurately represent values at any point in time.

[graciegirl]

Sellers will sell for what the market will bear.



And you are exactly right.

[gomoho]

Don't put too much faith in what Zillow reports - my neighbor's house showed it sold for $100k more than it did. The tax records should reflect the correct price - notice I said should.

[2BNTV]

Real estate agents have told me , "the buyers will determine the price one gets for their home, not the sellers", in a downturned market. Sellers always think their home is worth more, than it is.

However, that is not the case here, as inventory is low, and prices asked for are easily obtained. When build-out finishes, (whenever that will be, and only Gary Morse reallly knows), I think the prices will go up even further.

I know when I bought, the market hadn't taken off yet in terms of prices, so I am so glad I bought when I did. The real estate agent did me a favor when he said, "you need to pull the trigger". A sales gimmick as viewed by some, and a reality to others, who have seen prices skyrocket.

I think the VLS agents had a carefree attitude toward someone purchasing a home, as they knew the next buyer would purchase that particular home. Hopefully, it was their customer.

I am sure you will find a home somewhere in your price range, but prices have gone up dramatically.

[Happydaz]

I am absolutely convinced by people who know exactly how things are going to turn out in the future, but I must admit I was disappointed by the end of the world prediction that was posted on a telephone pole on my daily commute in New Hampshire. As the date for the end of the world passed the sign was never removed. The rain, sun, and snow slowly wore the message off until it became unreadable.

[Billyworld]

There are no hardcore facts to predict the future. I do know as a fact that most people that invested in the stock market in the early 2000's lost their butt. The same people that invested in Real Estate in the mid 2000's lost also. They all jumped on the bandwagon and lost. I NEVER LOST! As for the "snowbirds moving down here full time or at least for 9 moths why wouldn't they? We have no state income tax and unlike most northern states, when you die the greedy Govt. doesn't steal your estate money that you would leave to your kids. With owning a home in TV, why would you not take advantage of the tax laws we enjoy. As for where will people go? I lived in the Datyona area for 23 years before moving to TV. In Volusia County,look and see what a house compared to yours in TV would go for. I could buy my house on a larger lot for 200k less. This ain't no deal. Also, our sales tax was 6.5% for the first $5,000 and 6% after the first $5,000 in purchase. If you think this bubble won't burst, I suggest you gobble up as many properties as you can possibly buy. That would be what a serious investor would do with a "sure thing".

[kittygilchrist]

Just saying, I'm putting thousands and thousands into my home. You can't get everything upgraded by TV.

[villagerjack]

Most snowbirds, I know want to keep two homes. Your thesis is based upon a false premise. You seem to have a mixed message when you suggest this would be a good place to buy a home because of the tax advantages but Then suggest we are in a bubble? Which is it? Real estate prices are just catching up to rents which have been rising for the last 7 years while home values stagnated or declined. That is the primary reason home values are rising, that and the confidence coming from a rising stock market. Another piece of information for you to consider it is that it is the a Snowbirds who are buying a large percentage of homes in spite of the fact that they are the ones who come here only during the times when everyone else says it is crowded. I do not find it "crowded". We play golf 3 times a week and get T times at 10AM or before, play pickle all inthe early morning and my wife plays tennis twice a week, also in the morning hours with no problem. We head to the pool after lunch at a restaurant of our choice, no problem there either, and then head to one of the pools at 2PM, always get a lounge chair. Then we head to one of the 3 squares for some free entertainment and dancing. The perfect life and it's unavailable anywhere else in the world for this price, essentially free since I bought in 2007 and my home is now valued at about $50-60k more than we paid. So, Billy no doom and gloom from this family. I am too happy to worry about what the mystery snowbirds will do or not do. Life is too short.

[Medtrans]

Thank you Villagerjack for that upbeat post. We are coming from Chicago on the 22nd for our preview and frankly I was starting to get nervous and wonder if we could achieve the retirement we have been dreaming about which is golfing at least 3 times a week, plenty of pool time and eating out at lunch, preferably outdoors. You made me believe again that we can make that dream happen. Thank you.

[villagerjack]

Thank you Villagerjack for that upbeat post. We are coming from Chicago on the 22nd for our preview and frankly I was starting to get nervous and wonder if we could achieve the retirement we have been dreaming about which is golfing at least 3 times a week, plenty of pool time and eating out at lunch, preferably outdoors. You made me believe again that we can make that dream happen. Thank you.


Come on down Medtrans....Life is good here. It is truly the Worlds Friendliest Community. I must confess that there is one thing that I do find somewhat crowded...and that is the churches...but I view that as a good thing, indicative of the kind of folks we have living here. In NY we are closing Catholic Schools and churches. Here we are building churches of all denominations. We do get a seat on church, if we leave early enough so even that is not a problem. And an early arrival at church gives me an opportunity to pray for some of the folks who aren't as happy as we are :)

[2BNTV]

Just saying, I'm putting thousands and thousands into my home. You can't get everything upgraded by TV.

:agree:

I consider myself a "frog" so I am here till I croak.

My son will have to worry if real esate has appreciated or not. :D

[Ohiogirl]

Stuff under $250,000 in 2006-07 has probably appreciated quite a bit - at least CYVs and patio villas have. I know ours is worth at least $30,000 more than we paid for it in 2006, possibly more like 40-45,000.

[njbchbum]

There are no hardcore facts to predict the future. I do know as a fact that most people that invested in the stock market in the early 2000's lost their butt. The same people that invested in Real Estate in the mid 2000's lost also. They all jumped on the bandwagon and lost. I NEVER LOST! As for the "snowbirds moving down here full time or at least for 9 moths why wouldn't they? We have no state income tax and unlike most northern states, when you die the greedy Govt. doesn't steal your estate money that you would leave to your kids. With owning a home in TV, why would you not take advantage of the tax laws we enjoy. As for where will people go? I lived in the Datyona area for 23 years before moving to TV. In Volusia County,look and see what a house compared to yours in TV would go for. I could buy my house on a larger lot for 200k less. This ain't no deal. Also, our sales tax was 6.5% for the first $5,000 and 6% after the first $5,000 in purchase. If you think this bubble won't burst, I suggest you gobble up as many properties as you can possibly buy. That would be what a serious investor would do with a "sure thing".

Because we like where we live - except in the winter?
Because we don't like the extended season of heat/humidity?
Because we don't like love bugs?
Because we want to stay near family?
Because we don't play golf, pickleball, shuffleboard, cards or line dance either.
Because we have other residences to frequent or favorite places to travel to?
Because we have medical issues that require us to?
Because our pre-paid funeral arrangements and burial plots are there?
etc

[Steve & Deanna]

In regards to real estate prices, it appears that we could sell for at least $50K more than what we paid, but who wants to sell? We golf pretty much any time we want and get a golf course of our choice, go out when we want, shop when we want and life is good (except tough to get some bingo times nearby). So we sell, upgrade and pay $50K more? It's all relative. We are happy, happy, happy !!!

[TexaninVA]

OK- I know prices are what the market will bear but really. :duck:
When I look at a house that is preowned and compare the listing price with the last sold at price (listed on Zillow) a lot of the listings were bought within the last two years and are listed for 50 to 100 thousand over what they paid. And I recognize quite a few of them from when I was looking at rentals a year ago. I think there are some real estate speculators at work here. I understand 20 thou, real estate commission and then a little profit but when a house sold new construction for 60% of the current asking I think that the speculation is out of hand.
Do you think it is a bubble that will burst or level out. I mean the number of preowned on the market both VLS, MLS and buy owner as a % of total units built in the villages seems high to me. I know they are selling but how much do you think the hype of the sales people "grab it now or it will be gone" is influencing things.

What could possibly go wrong? :) The Fed has decreed that asset prices will never ever go down.

[ilovetv]

The Villages and Florida in general will always be attractive to people in other states who are sick and tired of paying always increasing state and property taxes, and the chill of subzero weather and huge heating fuel prices.......

Property Taxes Ranked by State:

Tax as Percent of Home Value

1. Wisconsin
2. Texas
3. Nebraska
4. Vermont
5. New Hampshire....
28. Florida

From this article: PROPERTY TAXES; WHERE DOES YOUR STATE RANK (http://www.co.chautauqua.ny.us/departments/tax/Pages/PropertyTaxStateRank.htm)
----

10 states with the highest state tax burden:

10. Pennsylvania Taxes paid by residents as pct. of income: 10.2%

9. Maine Taxes paid by residents as pct. of income: 10.3%

8. Massachusetts Taxes paid by residents as pct. of income: 10.4%

7. Minnesota Taxes paid by residents as pct. of income: 10.8%

6. Rhode Island Taxes paid by residents as pct. of income: 10.9%

5. Wisconsin Taxes paid by residents as pct. of income: 11.1%

4. California Taxes paid by residents as pct. of income: 11.2%

3. Connecticut Taxes paid by residents as pct. of income: 12.3%

2. New Jersey Taxes paid by residents as pct. of income: 12.4%

1. New York Taxes paid by residents as pct. of income: 12.8%

From this article: States with the highest and lowest taxes (http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/personalfinance/2012/10/28/state-taxes-states-highest-lowest/1654071/)

[Barefoot]

I am absolutely convinced by people who know exactly how things are going to turn out in the future, but I must admit I was disappointed by the end of the world prediction that was posted on a telephone pole on my daily commute in New Hampshire. As the date for the end of the world passed the sign was never removed. The rain, sun, and snow slowly wore the message off until it became unreadable.

Excellent post. :1rotfl:

[Polar Bear]

...most people that invested in the stock market in the early 2000's lost their butt. The same people that invested in Real Estate in the mid 2000's lost also. They all jumped on the bandwagon and lost. I NEVER LOST!

I never did either, but I'm not foolish enough to think that means I can predict the future.

[Billyworld]

"Never try to teach a pig how to dance. The pig will never learn how to dance. You just irritate the pig!"

[graciegirl]

You can't make a silk purse out of a sows ear.

[Barefoot]

There are no hardcore facts to predict the future. I do know as a fact that most people that invested in the stock market in the early 2000's lost their butt. The same people that invested in Real Estate in the mid 2000's lost also. They all jumped on the bandwagon and lost. I NEVER LOST!

As for the "snowbirds moving down here full time or at least for 9 moths why wouldn't they?

We have no state income tax and unlike most northern states, when you die the greedy Govt. doesn't steal your estate money that you would leave to your kids. With owning a home in TV, why would you not take advantage of the tax laws we enjoy. As for where will people go? I lived in the Datyona area for 23 years before moving to TV. In Volusia County,look and see what a house compared to yours in TV would go for. I could buy my house on a larger lot for 200k less. This ain't no deal. Also, our sales tax was 6.5% for the first $5,000 and 6% after the first $5,000 in purchase. If you think this bubble won't burst, I suggest you gobble up as many properties as you can possibly buy. That would be what a serious investor would do with a "sure thing".

You've predicted that a Bust is coming, and that The Villages will become a "madhouse" once most snowbirds move here full time. NJbchbum offered good insights as to why that may not happen.

[Big47moe]

"Never try to teach a pig how to dance. The pig will never learn how to dance. You just irritate the pig!"
Pigs make money, Hogs get slaughtered!

[villagerjack]

Crowds might have been a factor if not for the way the access to amenities is controlled the AAC, a genius move by the Morse Family that allows fair access to amenities for 3-4 month snowbirds. IN other over55 communities, full time residents devise ways of controlling the Amenities by forming clubs, teams etc that monopolize the amenities, in many cases denying access to the snowbirds. This us nit permitted in The Villages. It is also interesting that it is the snowbirds buying homes during the downturn that kept the decline in home Prices, way below other areas if the country and that is because they have equal access to the amenities and did not have to sell their home in a depressed market to buy home on The Villages. BTW, it is a myth to suggest that Snowbirds will stop being snowbirds. Most of them are already retired and want to keep two homes. BTW snowbirds do not think it is crowded here even in the so called high season. The more people, the merrier.

[villagerjack]

Pigs make money, Hogs get slaughtered!

The saying really goes like this : "Bulls make money, Bears make money and Pigs get slaughtered." I am a Bull on home Prices in The Villages.

[villagerjack]

"Never try to teach a pig how to dance. The pig will never learn how to dance. You just irritate the pig!"

"Nobody goes there anymore, it is too crowded".....Yogi Berra.

[LI SNOWBIRD]

The prices today still have not reached the 2005-2007 prices. Back then they told you what you were going to pay and what you were going to get there was no negotiations . so I told the sales rep what I wanted in a house and at what price. Three weeks later she called and it meant our satisfaction including the location.

there are people buying homes here who may/may not live here and using them exclusively as rentals.

We got the same spiel/deal from our realtor in 2005 "We know what you want" take it or leave it attitude... and we took it and love it.:pepper2:

[TrudyM]

I am not saying it isn't great here. I am not attaching your lovely community. I am not saying that the demand to come here is not going to continue.
I was asking if people thought that the speculators were artificially causing the prices to hike above what demand would normally support.
I am a number cruncher, when I started putting the listings of pre-owned in a spreadsheet in order to determine patterns I noticed a considerable number of listings that had been purchased within the last 24 months that were for sale listed at 30 to 50 thousand (or more)above the purchase price recorded in the county records. Most people do not buy a place and then resell in a year or two especially if they rented it out in the interim and I recognized some from my rental search (I have over 300 rentals in a spreadsheet).
I am also not referring to those on my list that were purchased in 2005-2008 and are listed at 75 to 100 thousand over what they paid (also a huge hike but not the point) and are likely to have made improvements. I by the way subtract the bond from the price listed when it shows bond pd as to be comparing apples to apples none of what I consider may be speculator listings on my list pd off the bond unless it already was.

Example from the paper today: 2959 DUKE TER Sanibel purchased Dec 2012 for $209,699 now listed for $299,000 selling turnkey but was purchased as a model furnished. Listed just after the 1 year villages prohibition on resales for profit.
------2923 Braddy Ct-Sanibel - Sold nov 2012 $465,700 now listed mls $648,500 has added a pool and birdcage.

[JourneyOfLife]

I have not looked into home prices in TV or how much they have increased.

But here are a few general observations:

1) Unless I intend to sell, property value increases just cost me money.... higher taxes, higher insurance costs, possibly higher fees.

2) Prices tend to reach equilibrium whether it is a bubble popping or fewer buyers show up that are willing to pay elevated prices.

3) There are substitutes! Always!!!!

4) If home prices are rising quickly and I felt like I was trapped with a second home over the last several years... I would be looking to unload it soon!

[manaboutown]

Is there a bubble growing within the bubble? Who knows, but RE prices have been rising in many desirable locations around the country.

A perceived approaching build out may feed a buy now or lose mentality to prospective purchasers. My concern is more about how efficiently and economically things will be run after the buildout! The Morses have done an incredible job at developing and managing the infrastructure at seemingly low cost. "Real" governments do not run as efficiently as a well run private enterprise.

[TexaninVA]

There are no hardcore facts to predict the future. I do know as a fact that most people that invested in the stock market in the early 2000's lost their butt. The same people that invested in Real Estate in the mid 2000's lost also. They all jumped on the bandwagon and lost. I NEVER LOST! As for the "snowbirds moving down here full time or at least for 9 moths why wouldn't they? We have no state income tax and unlike most northern states, when you die the greedy Govt. doesn't steal your estate money that you would leave to your kids. With owning a home in TV, why would you not take advantage of the tax laws we enjoy. As for where will people go? I lived in the Datyona area for 23 years before moving to TV. In Volusia County,look and see what a house compared to yours in TV would go for. I could buy my house on a larger lot for 200k less. This ain't no deal. Also, our sales tax was 6.5% for the first $5,000 and 6% after the first $5,000 in purchase. If you think this bubble won't burst, I suggest you gobble up as many properties as you can possibly buy. That would be what a serious investor would do with a "sure thing".

In terms of saying loudly one has never lost, I personally would be reluctant to do that given jinxing my otherwise stellar track record. I'm also be concerned about the biblical injunction that pride precedeth a fall.

[Yorio]

Some of my friends who have houses on sale tell me that sales have slowed down and their houses are on the market for a few months. Perhaps it is because the price went too high in 2013. Pre-owned home price depends on what new homes are selling by the developers. Will be curious to find out what kind of prices will be put on spec. homes east of 466A in Fruitland Park when they build on the newest land acquisition. It is also true that many of my friends up north are getting tired of what's happening with current snow storms. It was 2010 snow storm in North East when we said, let's get something in TV. Also, curious to know when the last of the Boomers are retiring. As you know we are a community of 100M to max 120M. Yes, I know unless Morse family decides to think otherwise. Will we go the way of Del Webb? Who knows.

[rubicon]

Some of my friends who have houses on sale tell me that sales have slowed down and their houses are on the market for a few months. Perhaps it is because the price went too high in 2013. Pre-owned home price depends on what new homes are selling by the developers. Will be curious to find out what kind of prices will be put on spec. homes east of 466A in Fruitland Park when they build on the newest land acquisition. It is also true that many of my friends up north are getting tired of what's happening with current snow storms. It was 2010 snow storm in North East when we said, let's get something in TV. Also, curious to know when the last of the Boomers are retiring. As you know we are a community of 100M to max 120M. Yes, I know unless Morse family decides to think otherwise. Will we go the way of Del Webb? Who knows.

boomers are from 1945 to 1954 if they retired at 62 be 2016 up until 2020

[TrudyM]

Some of my friends who have houses on sale tell me that sales have slowed down and their houses are on the market for a few months. Perhaps it is because the price went too high in 2013. Pre-owned home price depends on what new homes are selling by the developers. .

So the developer prices are setting the tone versus the overall market prices affecting the developer , you may be right there.

[buggyone]

boomers are from 1945 to 1954 if they retired at 62 be 2016 up until 2020

Not to quibble - but BabyBoomers began in 1946 and went through 1964.

[graciegirl]

So the developer prices are setting the tone versus the overall market prices affecting the developer , you may be right there.



Who knows? I would guess that since he knows real estate he knows what he can sell his stuff for. Friends in Chicago just sold their house and made a LOT more money on it than they would have if they had tried to sell it last year.


Property is worth what someone is willing to pay for it.

[keithwand]

Prices are up in a lot of regions including FL. No taxes and warm climate. Our son sold his rental house in Houston in 2 days with 2 full price offers. Price was up considerably from a year ago and was his reason for renting it out.
2012 before building and moving here we got an offer on our Winter Park house and felt we should rent it out for $3,500 a month instead. 1 year later we sold it for 60K more than the prior year or 10 percent plus the rental income.
So you see it's not just TV.
Rates are low, people are retiring.
A friend that just retired in MI was told to purchase a house in FL 2 years ago by his financial advisor and now they are looking at higher prices.

[villagerjack]

In terms of saying loudly one has never lost, I personally would be reluctant to do that given jinxing my otherwise stellar track record. I'm also be concerned about the biblical injunction that pride precedeth a fall.

:bowdown::bowdown::bowdown::bowdown::bowdown::

[justjim]

:bowdown:You can't make a silk purse out of a sows ear.

It's been a long time since I heard that one! :beer3:

[justjim]

Some of my friends who have houses on sale tell me that sales have slowed down and their houses are on the market for a few months. Perhaps it is because the price went too high in 2013. Pre-owned home price depends on what new homes are selling by the developers. Will be curious to find out what kind of prices will be put on spec. homes east of 466A in Fruitland Park when they build on the newest land acquisition. It is also true that many of my friends up north are getting tired of what's happening with current snow storms. It was 2010 snow storm in North East when we said, let's get something in TV. Also, curious to know when the last of the Boomers are retiring. As you know we are a community of 100M to max 120M. Yes, I know unless Morse family decides to think otherwise. Will we go the way of Del Webb? Who knows.

You make a very good point. I too have observed that the new homes in TV are up about 20% over the last 18 months or so. Resales generally follow the same trend.

Real Estate is all about location, location. Secondly, it's all about timing, timing.

I'm always skeptical of anybody who says they have predicated the future---in the past! Anybody can do that! That being said, history can tell us much.

Now, an easy future predication is----when prices get too high in TV (or anywhere else) they will come down. You can put that in your pipe and smoke it!

[justjim]

I have not looked into home prices in TV or how much they have increased.

But here are a few general observations:

1) Unless I intend to sell, property value increases just cost me money.... higher taxes, higher insurance costs, possibly higher fees.

2) Prices tend to reach equilibrium whether it is a bubble popping or fewer buyers show up that are willing to pay elevated prices.

3) There are substitutes! Always!!!!

4) If home prices are rising quickly and I felt like I was trapped with a second home over the last several years... I would be looking to unload it soon!

Journey: As one who has bought and sold several properties, you have made several good points.

Taxes will go up in TV shortly as the homes are reassessed according to the new market prices. There are some exceptions, however none for those who bought on speculation and either rent out or using it primarily as a vacation home.

There are other places close by that you can buy cheaper and get more house for the money. But if the "bubble" bursts (and that is an if) you could find your home values to be much less somewhere outside of TV.

My observation is that values did not decline as much in TV during the last downturn as it did in other communities.

[villagerjack]

My observation is that values did not decline as much in TV during the last downturn as it did in other communities.


The reason for that is because of the large number of people who bought second homes since they did not have to sell their original home to buy in the Villages.

[Polar Bear]

Regarding any unpredictable financial market...stock market, real estate, etc...I think Will Rogers had the best advice you could ever get. Paraphrasing, he said...

"Don't gamble; take all your savings and buy some good property and hold it till it goes up, then sell it. If it don't go up, don't buy it."

[asianthree]

the market is driven by those who sell and those who buy..when the buyers will no longer pay the higher price then homes may level out...we didn't buy in 2007 due to the high $$$ on homes, but were very happy with the price on homes in 2010, and that's when we bought