Home prices rising too fast?

[whybeglum]

Hi All
This is my first year as a renter and I am besotted with TV like so many others. I look for a house to buy every day and notice that the prices are even higher than they were in January. I see itsy bitsy houses for $ 200,000 and now wonder and worry that I am buying into a "bubble"

I keep hearing (in my head) Alan Greenspan's remark on the stock market bubble when he coined the term "irrational exuberance." And then some say "watch out, the Villages will soon be so over crowded that folks will start to bail"

Any thoughts? Advice?

[TNLAKEPANDA]

You can wait... up to you. I see TV as a good investment. We looked 18 months ago and just bought and paid about $70k more. Although it is hard to compare because of different lots cost more or less. TV is more expensive than other areas in Florida but they do not have what TV offers. What do YOU want?

[gustavo]

...I keep hearing (in my head) Alan Greenspan's remark on the stock market bubble when he coined the term "irrational exuberance." And then some say "watch out, the Villages will soon be so over crowded that folks will start to bail"

Any thoughts? Advice?

Greenspan said that in 1996, five years before the bubble broke. If you want to live here buy a house, it's a place to live, not an investment.

[JP]

For what it's worth, I bought my Villages house 2 years ago and it has gone up about 30% which is ridiculous.

As a side note, when I bought my house I thought I got a "steal" so maybe houses have gone up to approach a more "normal" level but I still think TV is bubbling.

In summary, I think you can buy now and still feel OK but the way things are going I would be careful about buying too much in the future.

[2BNTV]

I bought my house before the prices really skyrocketed.

If you are sreious abut buying a home, buy it soon, as I believe prices, will only go up more.

It's not just the house, but the lifestyle your buying. It can't be beat.

If your house is everythging to you and you are a homebody, they are surrounding communties like the Plantation and Stonecrest, that you can get a bigger house for your money.. I hear part of their selling process, is to crow, that is near TV.

IMHO - It's not like being in the middle of the action, with easy access to everything.

[JourneyOfLife]

IMO, unless house prices are way out of line... I would not be too worried about it.

Our house is our home, not an investment. IMO, it is an upfront and ongoing expense with a residual value that can vary depending on many factors outside of my control.

Don't take that comment as meaning I am fine with losing a lot of money. I would be saavy about my purchase. But timing is a luck thing... and I am not going to let timing affect my life decisions unless it is obvious that it would be a mistake.

We would only buy a home we were sure we could afford to own and maintain.

[graciegirl]

IMO, unless house prices are way out of line... I would not be too worried about it.

Our house is our home, not an investment. IMO, it is an upfront and ongoing expense with a residual value that can vary depending on many factors outside of my control.

Don't take that comment as meaning I am fine with losing a lot of money. I would be saavy about my purchase. But timing is a luck thing... and I am not going to let timing affect my life decisions unless it is obvious that it would be a mistake.

We would only buy a home we were sure we could afford to own and maintain.



Well said. And home values usually are similarly affected across the country. Not identically but similarly. A rising tide lifts all ships.

[123Cookie]

two things.......

1. name something significant and important that has actually gone down in price over the last 10 yrs.

2. here you are not only buying a house (aka home) but also a lifestyle that goes along with it. Peace of mind and an active retirement is beyond a price tag.

[Bay Kid]

I have been in the real estate business for 38 years. I always had clients that wanted to buy a good investment for themselves to live in.
My answer.
If you see it, you love it and you can afford it then there is your bargain!

[Happydaz]

In 1978 when I started working for a young California company I was sent for sales training in Palo Alto. It was a beautiful area in the San Fransico area. I remember hearing how house prices were astronomical and something had to happen as these prices were too high. Well, the same story churned on for years and prices continued their upward trend. People buy in desirable areas. Desirable areas grow faster in value than less desirable places. Look at the job market in that area. It is phenomenal! I also lived for forty years in the New England area and heard how ridiculous Boston's prices were. Again this is another example of a great employment area, with a biotech industry that is expanding and giving a tremendous boost to the Boston economy. If you want a less expensive house buy one in Northern Maine, up by the Canadian border or buy one in the depressed areas of Upstate New York, but you will never realize the gain you would get if you bought in the Boston or San Francisco area. So my thoughts are that your investment is actually safer in The Villages than in the surrounding developments. Where does everyone want to live? Where do you want to live?

[Michael22]

Hi All
This is my first year as a renter and I am besotted with TV like so many others. I look for a house to buy every day and notice that the prices are even higher than they were in January. I see itsy bitsy houses for $ 200,000 and now wonder and worry that I am buying into a "bubble"

I keep hearing (in my head) Alan Greenspan's remark on the stock market bubble when he coined the term "irrational exuberance." And then some say "watch out, the Villages will soon be so over crowded that folks will start to bail"

Any thoughts? Advice?
Will be puting my Ranch on the market in April. It is located in Polo Ridge it has two bedrooms plus the third is considered a den with no closet, it has a enclosed (windows) lanai and a small birdcage. The air was replaced with a larger unit last year. The home will be sold as a turnkey and be priced in the 190's.

[rubicon]

This like so many other questions is relative. It depends on individual circumstances. Are you in the market? seller? Buyer? Broker? what location? 1st time buyer seller. How long will you hold? will their be another bubble? Interest rates up down? Price level cross the country all up down or in between........................................... ..............

[billethkid]

what is to fear in buying the right property in the right place, like TV?

Just do some research on what real estate in general has done over the last 60 years. Then know the more desirable LOCATIONS will always command a premium.

[fixit6404]

I hear once the last lot is sold existing home prices will jump 20% almost over night. We found a great buy on a 10 year old like new turn key patio Villa last June at 145k. In October the broker said we could sell for 35k more and she could unload it in less than a week!

[rubicon]

Turn over is essential for sales people and the more they generate the better for them. some experts claim a home is an investment while others preach those days are over. Who are you going to believe?

Are you retired or still working. Are you deviating from your retirement plan? If you have new money coming in then you can be more flexible and free with your choices

[luvmagic2]

I say you may as well buy...we don't buy here for the investment but for the lifestyle...doesn't matter what happens to prices....I'm not planning on moving so it'll go to my kids anyway.

[travelguy]

We purchased 5 1/2 years ago, and for the first 4 years the value of our home went down, as indicated by a lowering of taxes each year. It seems now that our home has appreciated close to 30% more. Our heirs wil be very appreciative of the inheritance. I just hope that we will abe able to afford the increased taxes.

[rubicon]

If one buys for "the lifestyle" rather than focusing on the variables that determine the value of a home what happens if "the lifestyle is not to their liking or the initial effect wears off and you become bored or disenchanted with it? Separating "Lifestyle may not be possible but it would help to keep home price and lifestyle separate to determine actual value and then adjust up and down to determine if one wishes to locate here...........just saying

[gomoho]

If one buys for "the lifestyle" rather than focusing on the variables that determine the value of a home what happens if "the lifestyle is not to their liking or the initial effect wears off and you become bored or disenchanted with it?

Rubicon - that is an excellent point and I expect it happens more often than we realize. The good news is there are probably lots of folks in the waiting to jump into that lifestyle which would keep the prices up due to demand. I can't think of any community I would feel more confident trying out than TV.
Location, location, location.

[JourneyOfLife]

If one buys for "the lifestyle" rather than focusing on the variables that determine the value of a home what happens if "the lifestyle is not to their liking or the initial effect wears off and you become bored or disenchanted with it? Separating "Lifestyle may not be possible but it would help to keep home price and lifestyle separate to determine actual value and then adjust up and down to determine if one wishes to locate here...........just saying

People buy things all the time based on something they have in their mind.... marketing and advertising.

IMO, some of that issue depends on; How much!

I think most people are somewhat price sensitive for that sort of thing. I know I am!

Supply/demand should cause prices to reach some level of equilibrium for the market at points in time.


Here is an interesting concept. Compare the price of a TV home to a comparable in a nearby 55+ community that one likes (similar homes... comparables). Then figure out the ongong costs for living in the community for a period of time... say 10 or 20 years. IOW, on a total cost of ownership basis for each home.

What is the difference?

If the houses and basic amenities are roughly equivalent (other than scale) and one can drive to TV and use the shop, restuarants and entertainment....

One can derive a rough estimate of the extra cost of the lifestyle components they actually might use.


Put it like this, all else equal I might pay an extra $20k for some lifestyle want.

But I would find it difficult to justify paying an extra $100k in total ownership cost to belong to the one unique club that TV had that was not available at another community. For that matter I would start a club in my community if it came down to it.

[DianeM]

You don't live in an investment - you live in a home.

[2BNTV]

At this stage of my life, having sacrificed for many years, to save and have a happy retirement, it's worth it, to pay a few bucks more, to get what you want, rather than settle for something, that doesn't thrill you.

Yes, prices have gone up and I see them going up further, as build-out nears completion.

Consider this, "what is the price, for your happiness"?

They may be communitites where you can get more home for your money, but they all want to be like TV, for the ammenties, and being near the action.

Only you can decide what is right for you.

[JaniceOhio]

You don't live in an investment - you live in a home.

Diane M. --- Totally agree! Our home values are all increasing but I've never cared about it. I've been in my Ohio house 32 years and the upgrades I've made total far more than what I paid for the house or what it'll sell for.

Have some cool plans for Gilchrist house too but I'm out for one thing in TV... good friends and great times! And from the neighbors I've met I really lucked out!
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