More info on Brownwood

[Muncle]

For those who don't have access to the local paper. From today's Daily Sun. Couldn't find a link and this is the best scan I could get. This is the first I've noticed of the place including a "hospital complex."

http://i266.photobucket.com/albums/ii253/billfl/img015.jpg

[gfmucci]

I'm surprised that construction won't start for three years. I expected sooner.

[SteveZ]

I'm surprised that construction won't start for three years. I expected sooner.


The market slowdown probably has a lot to do with it. Many folks who would have retired and headed South are probably holding on for another year or two, hoping for the housing market to rebound a bit, so they don't take too much of a hit on the sale oftheir current residence.

[SteveFromNY]

Steve, I think many are ready too, but having trouble selling in this market. It stinks!

[Midge538]

The Brownwood postponement is just another sign of 'the developer's' growing financial problems. The overly ambitious plan to go on building through 2014, in a softened economy and a dramatically collapsed real estate market, has the developer facing tremendous and mounting carrying costs for all of those unsold lots and spec homes that we see. Something has to give. "Fasten your seatbelts."

[Sidney Lanier]

I agree with Midge538. We bought a resale in Belvedere, the first village south of CR-466. At the time we were told "two years" for Brownwood, the third town center, though because of our location it wasn't an issue for us. Just as the developer has done extraordinarily well--and has given us an excellent product--in the past, there's no promise that the market from several years ago will be the same now, and I'm sure the developer has been well aware of this reality. Similarly, there's no saying that the future will continue like the present; in all likelihood it won't, given the cyclical nature of our economy....

[Russ_Boston]

The Villages is the single largest real estate development in the country. The developer knows that over the course of the proposed 25 year plan (just a guess 1990 - 2015) that the RE market would fluctuate, perhaps violently. Does this mean that they don't wish for a recovery? Of course not but I can't imagine that anything drastic will happen such as a complete forfeiture of future plans.

That is one reason why The Villages model of developing the amenties first before the homes is such a brilliant idea. Prospective owners, like yours truly, can feel a little bit safer about their purchase. Many developments similar to TV (not on such a grand scale of course) have sold homes only to never develop the clubhouse or the golf course due to financial concerns.

[Villages Kahuna]

1. The new hospital which has been approved has a Wildwood address, but is nowhere near where we think of as Wildwood. The proposed new hospital is a 40-bed acute care facility which will be located on Rainey Trail (CR 472) roughly directly south of The Villages High School.

2. Is there really any evidence that the developer is in financial trouble? Construction of amenities, including the development of a third town square, have been initially financed by the developer with the developer quickly "repaying himself" with the proceeds from the issuance of revenue bonds. The bonds are issued by the commercial development districts, who actually are the entities that own the amenity or commercial properties. The bonds are privately placed for the most part and there is no evidence of flagging interest by investors in debt issued by the development districts.

3. The national real estate market is slow. But the market for the sale of homes in The Villages is nowhere near as badly affected. Homes are selling here at the rate of 275 to 300 per month. Is this pace down from the peak of a couple of years ago? Yes. Is that level of construction and sales comparable to the pace of the late 1980's and early 1990's? Yes. Does the developer appear to have his inventory of unsold homes well under control? Yes.

4. The latest schedule for the construction of Brownwood seems to be right on the original schedule estimated by the developer. In fact, it might be ahead of schedule. When Brownwood was announced, the developer estimated that it might take as much as a year to obtain all the necessary government approvals. And then, as I recall the timeline estimates, they didn't think Brownwood would be complete for several more years. The nearest Villages homes to the site of the new Brownwood are at least a mile away, with none at all built on the Brownwood side of CR 466A at all. Why would anyone consider the construction of a new commercial development when there won't be any customers anywhere near the proposed location for a couple of years?

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Posters here, particularly if they aren't residents or haven't taken the time to check their facts, should think twice about adding messages that could be both misleading and upsetting to other people.

[handieman]

I sometimes think that the naysayers who post are the same ones that insist someday the sun will rise in the west. Thank you Kahuana for a very well said post.
Handie :joke:

[billethkid]

I do not agree the developer is in any more trouble than they have been during past slow times over the last 40 years.
Are they taking prudent steps to moderate the build rate? Of course they are.
Did they get caught with more in inventory than they would have liked? Of course they did.

The Villages is a multi billion $$$ conglomerate with significant depth to survive the economic ups and downs of the times.

Any of us would trade them for their down side, slower than normal, reduced developing rate income and profits.

BTK

[KathieI]

Thanks, Kahuna,

Excellent information as usual!!

[graciegirl]

I love reading these posts. I am buffeted about like a ship in the storm. I am worried and then I am not.

There are some folks who make me think, and some who make me laugh and some who make me mad and some that I can't figure out.

Two of the most REASONABLE people that I see posting are Village 07 and the Village Kahuna.

I enjoy this whole experience. It is GREAT getting older and (clicking my heels) now owning a home in The Villages! :) :) :)

[SteveFromNY]

============================

Posters here, particularly if they aren't residents or haven't taken the time to check their facts, should think twice about adding messages that could be both misleading and upsetting to other people.


Hey Kahuna - glad to see you're back! As usual, you bring a very rational perspective to this often emotionally charged site. We need you around here! Don't stay away!

I can't, and wouldn't argue your facts, but I do have to say that if folks here only posted facts they checked, or gave a lot of thought to being neither misleading nor upsetting, this would be a quiet, boring place with very few posts! (said tongue in cheek)

;D

[The Gray Hog]

Has anyone noticed a new sales office for new and resale of TV homes located as a store front in Colony Plaza shopping ctr on 466A?

[villages07]

Gray,

I did notice that....probably part of their southward migration for building and selling; also, since they own the shopping center, better than having an empty storefront. There are still a lot of building lots North of 466A; it's sure going to be awhile before development crosses over 466A and touches Brownwood.

In some ways, I'm glad to see the build-out will take longer. As long as the developer is building/selling, the status quo on amenities, facilities, and conditions should be maintained. If we are at about 70K people now and buildout is 110K people, we are only about 2/3 complete. Still a long way to go. I've gotta believe that the developer's analysts have a pulse on all the major markets that feed into TV and have formulated a building plan that keeps them in step with anticipated demand.

Someday, there may well be a sales center and trolley rides at Brownwood and those of us now close to 466A will feel like the seasoned veterans. I imagine our friends around Spanish Springs and on the historic side are bemused at us newbies as we see progress growing south of us.

By the way, I also noticed cattle grazing in the field across 466A from Turtle Mound Golf Course. Perhaps a way to use the land to financial benefit until building commences.

[gfmucci]

The overly ambitious plan to go on building through 2014, in a softened economy and a dramatically collapsed real estate market, has the developer facing tremendous and mounting carrying costs for all of those unsold lots and spec homes that we see.

Take a look at this piece of news about the Florida real estate market: http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2008/moneymag/0805/gallery.resg_losers.moneymag/index.html?cnn=yes
Look at the 5-year real estate price trend - UP 50 to 90% over the past 5 years ! INCLUDING the most recent period of "the dramatically collapsed real estate market."* TV has a multi-dacade horizon, especially for bonding the infrastructure through the Community Development District bonds.*

There is one especially critical item they need to monitor closely.* Somebody has to pay the bond debt over the period between financing the infrastructure, and passing on the debt to the ultimate home buyer/consumer.* Who is that?* If sales are significantly below that needed to absorb the bonded debt, what happens?* Do the investors in the bonds get whacked?* Does some entity "guarentee" the bonds?

[villages07]

GF,

I believe the developer is paying for the infrastructure debt for that portion of a CDD which he still owns. So, in a new district, the developer is paying all the carrying costs until buyers start moving in, then his share (and his influence on the CDD board for that district) diminish over time until it is fully sold out. Developer reps on that CDD board eventually give way to all homeowner reps.

I don't know this as a solid fact...but, I did look at some budget docs at one time for un- or underdeveloped districts and it showed the developer paying costs for the lots he still owned.

V07

[jjdees]

The real estate market around the country is incredibly slow. The R.E. markets are mostly localized with some in bound relocations among the local buyers. The Villages draw buyers from the entire country plus Canada, the UK and God knows where else. When compared to the rest of the country, TV slowdown is minimal.

[beady]

RE: New sales office for New and Resale. TV opened one in the Mulberry Shopping Plaza about a month ago ????? No new building going on here?

[DickY]

GF,

I believe the developer is paying for the infrastructure debt for that portion of a CDD which he still owns. So, in a new district, the developer is paying all the carrying costs until buyers start moving in, then his share (and his influence on the CDD board for that district) diminish over time until it is fully sold out. Developer reps on that CDD board eventually give way to all homeowner reps.

I don't know this as a solid fact...but, I did look at some budget docs at one time for un- or underdeveloped districts and it showed the developer paying costs for the lots he still owned.

V07

I attended the CDD orientation today and that is how I understood the infrastructure debt works, just as 07 wrote.

[chuckster]

Kahuna, excellent post, especially regarding the uninformed posting unfounded messages.

[Muncle]

1. The new hospital which has been approved has a Wildwood address, but is nowhere near where we think of as Wildwood. The proposed new hospital is a 40-bed acute care facility which will be located on Rainey Trail (CR 472) roughly directly south of The Villages High School.



I admit that I'm a bit confused re hospitals. As you cited from today's paper, one is being built on 472. My first reaction was that this was the one referred to in yesterday's paper and I was, to say the least, underimpressed. But in looking as bit closer, I noted that the 472 hospital takes up 7 acres, while the one approved in conjunction with Brownwood comprises 51 acres. That's gotta be more than the Promise Hospital facility. Now I'm no denigrating the Promise place --- sounds like something we could use --- but it would be nice to have a much bigger facility down south. I'll be interested in seeing more information as it comes out. Russ, if you heard anything while interviewing, let us know.

Promise Hospital article: http://www.thevillagesdailysun.com/articles/2008/05/08/villages/villages01.txt

[The Great Fumar]

Brownwood is right on schedule. Developer applied for 240 new permits this month...........Two area's have reached 466A as we speak.......

Not to worry , The man with the 430 million dollar corporation knows what he is doing............

Fumar

and that includes the cattle grazing south of 466A

[captain1202]

An advantage the TV Developer has over other less established developers is "Crtitical Mass". I believe they've got lots of opportunities for cash flow even if they didn't sell a home for a year.

If, however, they should go belly up tomorrow, I believe it would have little effect on the current residents, unlike to folks near the Fort Myers development who are now trying to get some basic landscaping around their properties due to the builders failure.